Week 14 Primetime Preview 📺 | Who's Contending, Who's Pretending?

December 10, 2020

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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After a couple of off-kilter weeks, the NFL’s primetime schedule reverts back to the normalcy of a Thursday/Sunday/Monday Night Football game rotation. This is an excellent trio of match-ups ahead. All three games feature a single score spread, and less than a field goal spread for SNF and MNF, with a load of postseason implications on the line across the board. Let’s not waste much time and get right into these games as well as some DFS showdown strategies and plays!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this ***Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide*** for some important info and advice!

Thursday Night Football

New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Rams (-5) | 45.5 O/U

Implied Points | NE: 20.3, LAR: 25.3

Notable Offensive Injuries: QB Cam Newton (abdomen) - Questionable (expected to play), K Nick Folk (back) - Questionable, K Matt Gay (shoulder) - Questionable

How much do we read into the Patriots’ 45-0 shellacking of the Los Angeles Chargers in week 13? I’m going to go with “not a whole lot” but it is a strong reminder that a Bill Belichick-coached team should never be underestimated. This game is nearing “must-win” territory for the 6-6 Pats, meanwhile, the 8-4 Rams have, at times, looked like one of the more well-rounded teams in the league this season. I’m torn on how to project this game only because you get the feeling that Belichick has felt “backed into a corner” lately, which has possibly led them to a 4-1 record over their last five. I’d lean towards laying the five points with the Rams and, as for the total, I believe this will be a fairly methodical, slower-paced, defensive struggle so I’d favor the under hitting as well.

Lineup Construction: 4-2 (favoring both teams, but more so the Rams) or 3-3 builds look like the play here. I wouldn’t expect a runaway blowout by either side so a 5-1 build is off the table for me personally.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets: QB Jared Goff*, QB Cam Newton, RB Cam Akers, WR Robert Woods, WR Cooper Kupp*, Rams DST

*Preferred captain plays

WR Jakobi Meyers | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

It’s tough to get excited about any pass catcher whose quarterback has thrown just five touchdowns on the season for 186.6 YPG. But we’ve seen Meyers excel in multiple games over the last couple of months and he owns a team-high 28.3% target share. The Rams secondary is certified “lockdown” as they allow the fewest FPPG to perimeter receivers. Fortunately for Meyers, he aligns in the slot on the majority (56%) of his routes and the Rams have allowed the 8th most FPPG to slot WRs over the last eight weeks.

TE Tyler Higbee | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Higbee loses some looks to fellow tight end Gerald Everett, but at the end of the day, Higbee plays about 75% of snaps while Everett typically lands in the 50-60% range. New England has allowed the 4th least FPPG to TEs this season but over the last four games they’ve given up the 12th most FPPG to the position. Higbee will be a bit touchdown dependent but he has shown off the excellent upside with a three touchdown game back in week two and he did find paydirt last week against Arizona.

Both Kickers | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

The touch tree is fairly narrow in this game, and I’m expecting a sort of 23-17 kinda game here so I’d say one (or both?) of these kickers has a solid chance at being an optimal flex play. Both kickers are listed as questionable but should be good to go tonight. Wind won’t be an issue in this game and I wouldn’t be surprised if both guys land in the 10+ FP territory.

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills (-2.5) | 46.5 O/U

Implied Points | PIT: 22.0, BUF: 24.5

Notable Offensive Injuries: RB James Conner - Activated from COVID-19 list, WR John Brown (ankle) - IR

Just like everyone predicted, the Steelers’ perfect season came to an end at the hands of the Washington Footballs in week 13. Meanwhile, Josh Allen and the Bills are really heating up down the stretch while averaging 33.8 PPG over their last four. Buffalo deserves to be the slight favorite in this one but Pittsburgh is obviously not a team to take lightly, especially with the likely return of James Conner (C19) this week (Steelers had just 21 yards rushing versus Washington). So how should this game play out? With both highly capable offenses at essentially full strength, I could see this one being a bit of a shootout so give me the over on 46.5 points. I do think the Steelers can play a little bit more fast and loose, now that the pressure of going undefeated is off their back. But these Bills are rolling and Josh Allen looks locked in. Despite that dominant Steelers defense, I’ll roll with Allen & Co. covering the two-and-a-half.

Lineup Construction: I’d probably throw a ton of even 3-3 builds at this showdown slate with some 4-2 (both teams) mixed in.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets: QB Josh Allen*, QB Ben Roethlisberger*, RB James Conner, WR Stefon Diggs*, WR Diontae Johnson*, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

*Preferred captain plays

WR Cole Beasley | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Beasley should probably fall into the “best bets” category, but I still think most people just see his name and view him as the “five receptions for 50 yards slot guy”. While that can be what he amounts to many weeks, Beasley is sneakily 19th in the NFL in receiving yards (797) and 18th in receptions (66). The ankle injury to John Brown is giving Beasley a bit of an uptick in snaps lately and he also benefits from Stefon Diggs drawing a ton of attention from opposing secondaries. The slot, where Beasley aligns on 90% of his routes, is the best spot to attack the PIT secondary (6th most FPPG allowed to slot WRs) so expect a safe floor with a strong ceiling out of Cole this Sunday night.

K Tyler Bass | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Recommending a kicker in these showdown write-ups always feels a tad lame but Bass is a legitimate fantasy asset. He ranks 3rd among NFL kickers in fantasy points and is averaging 10.1 FPPG (also ranks 3rd). Bass has double-digit FP in four straight and has shown a ceiling of 23 FP this season. Perhaps it plays out that the Bills find success moving the ball on most drives between the 20s, but the stout Steelers D forces drive to stall once Buffalo pushes towards the redzone. If Bass came away with 4-5 FG attempts, I don’t believe anyone would be shocked. He’s making just under 80% of his FG attempts this season, including 4-6 from 50+. But do beware, there are currently 15 mph winds projected in this game but forecasts can always change between now (Thursday) and Sunday night.

WR Chase Claypool | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Claypool was pretty quiet in the week 13 loss (4 tgt, 2 rec, 38 yds). In the five games prior, Claypool had drawn at least eight targets and scored four total TDs. It’ll likely be in Pittsburgh’s best interest to get the electrifying rookie back to a more heavily involved role against a fairly average Bills secondary. When Diontae Johnson, JuJu, and Claypool are all clicking, opposing secondaries are spread extremely thin and one of those guys usually comes open. Claypool’s 12.92 yard aDOT is much, much higher than JuJu’s (5.43) and Johnson’s (7.49) so while he sees lower-percentage passes, he has the role in this offense that could break a game (and a showdown slate) wide open.

Monday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens (-1) @ Cleveland Browns | 46.5 O/U

Implied Points | BAL: 23.8, CLE: 22.8

Notable Offensive Injuries: WR Willie Snead IV (C19) - Status TBD, WR Dez Bryant (C19 + wine hangover) - Status TBD

In the last meeting between these two, the Ravens dog-walked the Browns by a score of 38-6 way back in week one. Raise your hand if you predicted Cleveland would string together an 8-2 record over their next ten games following that week one blowout. Now, everyone put your hands down because you’re a filthy liar! This game will pit the NFL’s top two rushing offenses against one another (Ravens 1st - 169.0 rushing YPG, Browns 2nd - 157.8 YPG) so expect an old-school ground ‘n pound sorta game here. As odd as it is to accept this, I’m actually buying into this Brown’s team, especially following what really felt like a statement game last week in their 41-35 win over a really good Tennessee team. Give me the skinny dogs to cover the +1 here. I’m torn on this O/U but considering how much these teams run the ball, expect the clock to be running a ton in this game. That would obviously favor the under, but I don’t have a strong conviction on that.

Lineup Construction: Like the other primetime games this week, I doubt we see either team run away with things on the scoreboard. So, once again, 4-2 (both teams) and balanced 3-3 builds feel like the play to me.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets: QB Lamar Jackson*, QB Baker Mayfield, RB JK Dobbins*, RB Nick Chubb*, TE Mark Andrews*, WR Jarvis Landry

*Preferred captain plays

WR Marquise Brown | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Hollywood Brown is very much a boom/bust play in the Ravens’ run-first offensive scheme, but he enters with back-to-back weeks with eight targets and a trip to the endzone. The Ravens were without Mark Andrews (thigh/C19) and Willie Snead IV (C19) for those two games, so you do have to feel a bit more hesitant about Brown’s TD upside. However, in a game where both QBs may struggle to even *combine* for 300 yards or so, any pass-catcher is going to bring a considerable amount of risk to the table.

RB Kareem Hunt | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

There is no question that Nick Chubb is the engine that makes this Browns offense go. Hunt has certainly been disappointing in most games over the last couple of months and even when Chubb was sidelined with a knee injury he struggled to make the most of his featured role. However, the snap share is still working out to be essentially 50/50 between the two backs. Hunt is a better RB than what he has shown in recent weeks and he’s still getting consistent touches. He’ll breakthrough for a big game sooner or later, perhaps this Monday night, and he’s a solid (albeit risky) GPP pivot off of Chubb.

RB Gus Edwards | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

When you take into account that Lamar Jackson averages 10.5 rushes/gm, this is essentially a four-headed backfield committee between Lamar, Dobbins, Edwards, and Mark Ingram. When this many hands are dipping into the cookie jar, the RBs of this backfield become fairly touchdown dependent. Dobbins is looking like the preferred back for the foreseeable future, but Edwards is a talented runner in his own right and has also operated as the goal line back in games this season. He’s also coming off of a game where he needed just seven carries to rush for 101 yards (14.4 YPC). About 10 carries, 60 yards, and a touchdown is a feasible outcome for Gus in this game and could be enough to make him an optimal showdown DFS flex play.

That will wrap us up for the Week 14 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate break down linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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