Week 15 NFL Primetime Preview | Who Steps Up for the Underdogs?

December 11, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

Welcome to the Week 15 LineStar Primetime Preview! Here we'll be getting a look ahead at the week's primetime games with a focus on the single game slates across DraftKings and FanDuel. On top of single game strategies and tips, you'll find game previews and some less obvious players to consider for your lineups! This newsletter is meant to be GPP oriented, so you'll rarely see any QBs, WR1s, or RB1s highlighted as those are always the more obvious players to roster.

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Single game “showdown” NFL slates are becoming more and more popular. As such, sites like DraftKings and FanDuel have been rolling out a wider array of contests with larger prize pools. Many may think that in order to win an NFL showdown GPP you simply have to ‘luckbox’ your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate. Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport, you do need a bit of good fortune. But research and intelligent game theory truly makes all the difference.

So, what are some determining factors that should affect your NFL showdown lineup construction?

1) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predictive game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you really need to make your lineup tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game which will be in catch-up mode. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type low-scoring affair, then consider rostering both defenses (one perhaps in your captain/MVP slot) with a kicker while trying to find the skill position player(s) who happen to score the game’s one or two touchdowns. There are plenty of other ways that NFL games ultimately play out, but those are just a couple of basic examples.

2) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, and RB1s. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have been rising or somebody else that is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs. Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be either overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to exceed the field by rostering him in 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you’re limiting the potential upside of your lineups.

3) Choosing the Right Captain/MVP

This one is quite obvious, but the 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially GPPs. Combine the aforementioned strategies with your own thoughts and predictions to determine what approach you’re going to take with the ever valuable captain position.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

One of the better ways to ensure you have a more unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more) on the table may not feel like a ‘comfortable’ thing to do, yet is often times the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back test this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous showdown slates.

Example: For week 14's MNF match-up between the Giants and Eagles, the most optimal lineup you could create on DraftKings only used $48,400 of the available $50,000 budget. If you hit on Boston Scott that night, well played.

Now that we’ve covered some strategic angles, let’s get into these games!

Thursday Night Football

New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens (-15) | 45 O/U

NYJ: 15.0 implied points | BAL: 30.0 implied points

NYJ Off. Pace Rank: 21st | BAL Off. Pace Rank: 32nd

NYJ PPG For/Against: 17.4/23.2 | BAL PPG For/Against: 33.1/18.2

The dynamic Baltimore Ravens are set up nicely to capture their tenth consecutive win when they face off with the Jets on Thursday Night Football. After very tough match-ups over the last two weeks versus San Francisco and on the road in Buffalo, this *should* be a game where they can coast pretty easily to a comfortable win, as the 15 point spread would indicate. Of course, things don’t often go the way that we think they’ll go, but it is hard to imagine a scenario where Baltimore doesn’t win this game by multiple scores. It will be interesting to see how well the Jets 2nd ranked run defense (78.8 rushing YPG allowed) can hang with Baltimore which is, unsurprisingly, the top rushing offense in the league (200.9 YPG). The big story over the past couple days concerns the health of Lamar Jackson, who is dealing with a quad injury. Jackson has stated himself that he’ll be ready for TNF, so by all means we’ll see the NFL’s MVP front runner suiting up. Elsewhere, Mark Andrews (knee) is listed as questionable but is trending in the right direction. On the Jets side of things, Demaryius Thomas (hamstring) is doubtful to play while backup RB Bilal Powell and TE Ryan Griffin have already been ruled out. New York’s defense is also severely banged up with several key starters listed as questionable or doubtful for Thursday. This may be an ugly one on the scoreboard but whenever you get a chance to watch Lamar Jackson, it’s must-see TV.

Players to Consider:

No-brainer captain selections: Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, Mark Ingram, Le’Veon Bell, Ravens D/ST (DraftKings)

Hayden Hurst | DK: $4.2k, FD: $8.5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

As mentioned above, top tight end Mark Andrews is a bit banged up heading into this week but should suit up. However, in a game where the Ravens should win comfortably, you do have to wonder just how much the coaching staff will put Andrews out on the field on a short week. Lamar Jackson throws to his tight ends a ton and, in fact, over their last four games Andrews is third among Ravens tight ends with a 38% snap rate (Nick Boyle - 88%, Hayden Hurst - 47%). While Boyle is on the field more, Hurst is the better big play threat, as he displayed last week on a 61 yard catch and run. Baltimore has ran 43% of their offensive plays this season with at least two tight ends on the field. If you need a risky boom/bust play, Hurst could be your guy. It’s worth noting that the Jets have allowed the 2nd fewest FPPG to tight ends, but New York will likely be without LB Jamal Adams which puts a big dent in their middle-of-the-field coverage.

Jamison Crowder | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Crowder has put up some miserable performances lately with just seven catches for 56 yards over his last three games. For that reason, I doubt many people are going to feel great about rostering him in DFS lineups. On the bright side, Darnold is steadily looking his way, sending 20 targets in his direction during that three game stretch. I imagine Baltimore will be focusing on stopping a surging Robby Anderson who has two touchdowns and 303 yards receiving over his last three games. WR2s have done pretty well against Baltimore as well -- Cole Beasley, Deebo Samuel, and Robert Woods all eclipsed 14 PPR fantasy points against the Ravens in the last three weeks. With the Jets very likely playing catch up for much of this game, and with limited options available to throw to (no Demaryius Thomas or Ryan Griffin), Crowder could reasonably see 10+ targets and end up in the optimal lineup.

Justin Tucker | DK: $4k, FD: $10k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Tucker isn’t worth considering at the captain/MVP roster slot on FanDuel but for $4,000 on DraftKings, he feels like a very viable captain selection -- or at least someone to simply roster. This is the best kicker in football we’re talking about and he has averaged nearly 10.0 FPPG this season. The Jets defense may be just good enough to ‘bend but not break’ and cause several Ravens drives to stall in field goal range. If Tucker gets three or four field goal opportunities, odds are he converts on all of them. In that scenario, on top of PATs, he’d very likely land in the optimal DK lineup.

Sunday Night Football

Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) | 36.5 O/U

BUF: 17.3 implied points | PIT: 19.3 implied points

BUF Off. Pace Rank: 14th | PIT Off. Pace Rank: 27th

BUF PPG For/Against: 21.1/16.3 | PIT PPG For/Against: 19.9/18.6

If you crave offensive fireworks, well, this may not be the game for you. The 36.5 implied total is easily the lowest of any game this week. This match-up does feature two of the NFL’s top six scoring defenses, so it comes as no surprise that Vegas is low on the projected offensive output here. There is still some strong playoff intrigue here. The 8-5 Steelers and 9-4 Bills are both currently hanging on to the 5th and 6th AFC Wild Card seeds and a win for either team would go a long way towards ensuring a postseason berth. The Buffalo Bills offense appears to be entering this primetime match-up fully healthy. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is set to get two major weapons back, with James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster both logging full practices on Wednesday. Jaylen Samuels and Vance McDonald are really the only two noteworthy injury concerns among skill position players in this game -- both are listed as questionable for Sunday.

Players to Consider:

Note: Single game salaries for SNF and MNF are unavailable at the time of this writing on Wednesday.

No-brainer captain selections: Josh Allen, Devlin Hodges, James Conner, Devin Singletary, Both D/STs (DraftKings).

Diontae Johnson

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

It really is tricky finding intriguing offensive plays in this game. Both of these defenses are just very stout and don’t give up very many fantasy points to any position. But if we’re looking at WR/CB match-ups, as long as Buffalo doesn’t opt to shadow Johnson with top cover corner Tre’Davious White, Johnson should see a fair amount of routes against Levi Wallace. Quarterbacks have targeted receivers running against Wallace on 23% of his coverage snaps and he gives up nearly double the amount of fantasy points per route than both White and slot corner Taron Johnson. Diontae Johnson is also coming off of his best game as a rookie, catching 6-of-8 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown while also adding on an electric 85-yard punt return for a score. If he and Duck Hodges can continue to stay on the same page, Johnson may be the wide receiver to roster this Sunday.

Cole Beasley

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

On Buffalo’s side, Beasley is the receiver who draws the most favorable WR/CB match-up out of the slot. Steelers slot corner Mike Hilton has been targeted on 23% of routes ran against him and has given up 0.43 FP per coverage snap. On the season, Pittsburgh has allowed the 26th most FPPG to perimeter receivers but the 5th most FPPG to slot receivers. Beasley has become a favorite safety net for QB Josh Allen as of late. He’s caught a touchdown in three straight games while leading the team with a 26% target share in that span. In a game which will feature plenty of risky offensive plays, Beasley is probably one of the safer investments out there, especially on DraftKings which utilizes full PPR scoring.

Chris Boswell

GPP Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Eh, I know… another kicker. But in a game which is projected to be a defensive struggle, several drives could stall out within field goal range and Boswell has been a very solid fantasy producer this year. He is 5th among all NFL kickers with 112 fantasy points this season and has converted on 26/28 FG attempts this year (92.9%). He also has surpassed double digit fantasy points in six of his last ten games. He’ll be worthy legitimate consideration in a match-up which may not feature very many touchdowns.

Monday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints (-9) | 46 O/U

IND: 18.5 implied points | NO: 27.5 implied points

IND Off. Pace Rank: 17th | NO Off. Pace Rank: 29th

IND PPG For/Against: 22.8/22.7 | NO PPG For/Against: 26.5/22.8

The 6-7 Colts have dropped five of their last six games and are quickly witnessing their playoff dreams fading away. Meanwhile, the 10-3 Saints have already clinched a playoff berth but just lost a vital match-up against the 49ers last Sunday. A New Orleans win would have gone a long way toward their hopes of capturing home field advantage through the playoffs. Motivation should not be in question for either of these teams but it is pretty clear who will have the upper hand in this one. The absence of TY Hilton, who has missed five of Indy’s last six games, has proven to be a major reason behind their late season slide. There is a small window he’ll suit up this week but that’s a situation which we’ll have to monitor as the week progresses. Elsewhere, Saints tight end Jared Cook (concussion) stands out as the only other notable offensive injury heading into Monday night.

Players to Consider:

No-brainer captain selections: Drew Brees, Jacoby Brissett, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Marlon Mack

Taysom Hill

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Taysom Hill is the ultimate fantasy enigma. Technically, he is the third string quarterback but anyone who has watched a Saints game this season knows he is used in a variety of ways, namely as a runner and receiver. Sean Payton loves to utilize Hill in the redzone, much to the displeasure of those who roster Brees, Thomas, Kamara, etc. He saw his snap rate rise all the way up to 40% last week and, while he is a major gamble and touchdown dependent, odds are he’ll be a low owned leverage play on this single game slate.

Jack Doyle

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Doyle has a team leading 21 targets over the last three weeks and his services are likely going to be needed once again considering how depleted the Colts receiving corps may be on Monday night. Doyle’s fantasy prospects take a bit of a hit if TY Hilton suits up but he’ll still be one of Brissett’s go-to options, especially in the redzone. The Saints have struggled a bit against tight ends lately as well, allowing 15.2 FPPG to the position over their last four games. The Saints defense is very stout up front (94.2 rushing YPG allowed, ranks 5th) which often funnels opposing offenses to pass heavily. Odds are that continues to be the case this week, especially if New Orleans jumps out to an early lead.

Saints D/ST

GPP Captain Rank: ★★☆☆☆

Oddly enough, the New Orleans defense has actually struggled more at home this season. In seven home games, they’re averaging just 5.9 FPPG (12.2 FPPG on the road). They’ve given up 79 points in their last two home games, which is a bit… concerning. But this could be a solid bounce back spot as Indianapolis possesses just an 18.5 implied team total. The Superdome should be rockin’ in primetime and we’ve seen this defense score 16.0 (@ ATL) and 17.0 (@ TB) fantasy points within the last month. If they can find that spark at home, chances are they’ll be an optimal play on DraftKings.

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Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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