Week 15 Primetime Preview 📺 | Looking for Fireworks to Fly in Sin City

December 17, 2020

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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Week 14 brought us a very strong trio of primetime games that was anchored by an insane MNF shootout which many NFL fans would agree was the game of the year, up to this point. This week’s set of primetime match-ups won’t be as spicy on paper but, who knows, maybe we’ll be pleasantly surprised once it is all said and done. Regardless, there are still showdown contests to play and money to be won for these games so let’s get down to business!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this ***Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide*** for some important info and advice!

Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) | 53 O/U

Implied Points | LAC: 24.8, LV: 28.3

Notable Offensive Injuries: WR Keenan Allen (hamstring) - Questionable, RB Austin Ekeler (quad) - Questionable, WR Mike Williams (back) - Questionable, WR Henry Ruggs III (C19) - Out

From a fantasy perspective, this is easily the standout primetime game of the week. The current 53 point total is also the highest over/under for any game in the NFL in week 15 -- something to consider for anyone playing the Thursday-Monday slate. There are quite a few injuries to take into account for this game and several key Raiders defenders are in danger of being sidelined. For that reason, I do somewhat lean towards the Chargers covering the +3.5 points, possibly even pull off the small upset. I also believe the over hits here as well, especially since this will be played at the indoor Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas where game totals have averaged 60.7 PPG this season (and no fewer than 49 points scored). Currently, 77% of public bets are being placed on the over, so don’t be shocked if this total rises another point or point and a half by kickoff.

Score Prediction: Chargers - 28, Raiders - 31

Lineup Construction: Balanced 3-3 builds will probably be the most popular approach followed closely by 4-2 (both teams) builds. Anything can happen in the NFL but I don’t really see this turning into a one-sided affair, so I’ll have very little interest in 5-1 smash builds.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets (Core Players): QB Justin Herbert*, QB Derek Carr*, RB Austin Ekeler*, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Keenan Allen*, TE Darren Waller*

*Preferred captain plays

WR Nelson Agholor | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

With Henry Ruggs III (C19) out for this week, Agholor will be a borderline core play for me on this showdown slate. Over the last month, Agholor’s 35 targets and 22.8% target share is not too far off from Darren Waller (41 tgt, 25.5% tgt%) who is really the true “WR1” on this team. Agholor’s 15.5 yard aDOT also leads the team, just ahead of Ruggs (13.9 aDOT) so when Carr is looking for a big play ball down the field, it’s likely going to be thrown in the direction of Agholor. The Chargers are solid against WRs (7th fewest FPPG) but Agholor can pay off handsomely with just a couple of big plays, but the volume should also be there.

WR Zay Jones | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

To expand on the absence of Ruggs (who has a 57% snap rate this season) one of either Zay Jones or Bryan Edwards will likely pay off their sub-$1,000 DraftKings showdown salaries. Both guys have played almost identical snaps this season (Jones - 19%, Edwards - 21%) but Jones has turned his opportunities into 0.177 FP/snap, as opposed to 0.115 FP/snap for Edwards. Jones is also being targeted more than Edwards when either guy is on the field so, while it’s not an immense sample size, I’ll side with the data that indicates Derek Carr trusts Zay Jones slightly more as a receiver over Edwards.

WR Jalen Guyton | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

This is a bit dependent on whether or not Mike Williams suits up, but even if he does play, Guyton should be on the field in most (if not all) three wide receiver sets which the Chargers run on over 75% of plays. Guyton is a boom/bust receiver who is absolutely dependent on big plays, but that’s what ya need sometimes on these showdown slates. Guyton is averaging 18.0 YPC and even though Tyron Johnson out-performed him last week after Mike Williams went down, I believe Guyton would still be my preferred guy to roll with. Both are risky, but Guyton is arguably less risky than Johnson if Williams plays.

Sunday Night Football

Cleveland Browns (-4) @ New York Giants | 45.5 O/U

Implied Points | CLE: 24.8, NYG: 20.8

Notable Offensive Injuries: QB Daniel Jones (hamstring/ankle) - Questionable, TE Austin Hooper (neck) - Questionable, WR Khadarel Hodge (hamstring) - Questionable

What a game between the Browns and Ravens this past Monday night but… man, such a tough loss for Cleveland to swallow. But I doubt they’re going to spend much time feeling sorry for themselves. Few people would have predicted Cleveland would be 9-4 at this point in the season with an excellent chance at snapping their 18 year playoff drought. At the same time, prior to their lopsided week 14 loss to Arizona, the Giants were riding a four-game win streak and are still just a game back from Washington atop the NFC East. However, Daniel Jones clearly doesn’t look ‘right’ and (assuming he starts on Sunday night) I’m not sure if the Giants can pull off the upset in this spot against a surging Browns team. I’ll side with the current 77% of bettors who are laying the four points with the Browns. As for the total, I’d lean towards the under hitting as well in what could be a bit of an ugly game.

Score Prediction: Browns - 26, Giants - 17

Lineup Construction: Leaning towards mostly 4-2 (Browns) builds with a few 3-3’s mixed in. In the off chance of a lopsided Browns win, a couple of 5-1 (Browns) smash builds won’t be off the table for me either.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets (Core Players): QB Baker Mayfield*, QB Daniel Jones (meh), RB Nick Chubb*, RB Kareem Hunt, RB Wayne Gallman Jr.*, WR Jarvis Landry

*Preferred captain plays

WR Rashard Higgins | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Browns rookie WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is another trendy pick on this side of the ball but the potential return of Khadarel Hodge from a hamstring injury could hurt his opportunities this week. Higgins should maintain around a 70-80% snap rate regardless of Hodge’s status. Over the last two weeks, Higgins has racked up 12 catches on 19 targets for 163 yards and two TDs. In that span, that equates to a 25.5% target share alongside a massive 39.5% air yard percentage. Now, the obvious caveat here is the fact that the Browns likely aren’t scoring 40+ points as they did in each of those games. The Browns are the 3rd most run-heavy offense in the league which relies largely on their dynamic duo of Chubb and Hunt behind an elite offensive line. But if Baker Mayfield and this passing attack stay hot, so should Higgins.

Browns DST | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

If the Giants struggle like they did last week against Arizona, where they only mustered seven points, then the Browns have a strong chance to crack double-digit fantasy points and come away as an optimal FLEX play. Daniel Jones is the 4th most sacked QB on the season and he had trouble hanging onto the ball last week, fumbling three times (though, he lost only one). Perhaps the Browns snag themselves a scoop ‘n score?

TE Evan Engram | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

*If* Engram ever gets some solid QB play, he’ll put up some fantastic numbers. The guy is a freakish athlete and his 4.42 speed results in complete mismatches against slower linebackers. Who knows what kind of game the hobbled Daniel Jones (or Colt McCoy) can put together, but tight ends have had great success against Cleveland this season. The Browns allow the 2nd most FPPG to TEs, trailing only the lowly Jets in that category. Just get the ball in this man’s hands!

Monday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers (-13) @ Cincinnati Bengals | 40.5 O/U

Implied Points | PIT: 26.8, CIN: 13.8

Notable Offensive Injuries: QB Brandon Allen (knee) - Questionable, RB James Conner (quad) - Questionable

The NFL and all pro sports should continue building up their integration and acceptance of DFS and sports gambling in general because that’s about the only reason most people would tune into this game. Seriously, why aren't all primetime games after week 13 or 14 'flexed' to feature more appealing match-ups?! I can’t sugarcoat it, this is almost certainly going to be an ugly game to watch. The Bengals have scored ten points or fewer in four of their last five games and Pittsburgh has all the motivation in the world to bounce back after two losses in a row following an 11-0 start. But as we all know, nothing is guaranteed in this league so while I am tempted to hammer the Steelers to cover 13 points here, I’m going to approach this one a bit more cautiously. It’s interesting to see how the public is viewing this game. Per actionnetwork.com, currently 74% of bets are on the Steelers but over 90% of money wagered is on the Bengals to cover. There must be some bettors out there with deep pockets who aren’t buying into Pittsburgh this week. The under is also an extremely popular bet right now as well with 68% of bets, and 96% of total money wagered falling on under 40.5 points being scored on Monday night. Interesting. I really don’t know how to call this one, so I’ll make my ‘shot from the hip’ score prediction and leave it at that for now.

Score Prediction: Steelers - 24, Bengals - 13

Lineup Construction: This could easily turn into a one-sided game where the Steelers just completely dominate and a 5-1 (Steelers) smash build wins all the cash. I’ll side with 4-2 (Steelers) builds as the most favorable approach, however. This is the rare occasion where balanced 3-3 builds could actually be considered “contrarian”.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets (Core Players): QB Ben Roethlisberger*, WR Diontae Johnson*, RB James Conner (if healthy), WR Juju Smith-Schuster, WR Tyler Boyd, Steelers DST*

*Preferred captain plays

WR Tee Higgins | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

One advantage of being in the midst of a lost season like the one Cincinnati finds themselves in is the opportunity to give your rookies some significant opportunities. Higgins would have a significant role regardless of the Bengals’ record, but his consistent targets as of late should put him on our radar for DFS purposes. Higgins owns a respectable 20.9% target share which is good for second on the team, right behind Tyler Boyd (21.3%). He has drawn at least seven targets in six of Cincy’s last seven games and the game script likely favors a pass-heavy approach once again. Obviously not an easy match-up, but the volume should be there for Higgins to bring a respectable floor to showdown lineups.

WR James Washington | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

As much as I like Diontae Johnson, especially as a captain option if he continues to drop those highly catchable passes from Ben Roethlisberger, he’s going to immediately cede snaps to James Washington. After dropping three passes last week against the Bills, Johnson was more or less benched in favor of Washington who ended up playing 81% of snaps and eventually scored a touchdown. Reportedly, head coach Mike Tomlin is giving Johnson a clean slate heading into this week but even if a heavy week on the jugs machine cuts down on his drops, James Washington still maintains a boom/bust role in this Steelers offense and could be worth a flyer in showdown contests.

RB Jaylen Samuels | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

Both of these backfields are a mess to figure out. James Conner honestly just doesn’t look good and with Joe Mixon on IR, Giovanni Bernard hasn’t done much with his opportunities the last few weeks. As a result, several other backs are getting involved for both teams in this match-up. Samuels actually led Steelers RBs with a 47% snap rate last week against the Bills -- although his involvement may have been influenced by Pittsburgh playing from behind and utilizing Samuels more as a receiving option out of the backfield. The Steelers are probably going to be playing with a lead for most of this game, but I have a feeling that one of these backup RBs is going to end up as an optimal play so I’ll take a gamble on Samuels being that guy.

That will wrap us up for the Week 15 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate break down linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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