Week 16 Primetime Preview 📺 | Holiday Weekend Edition + Christmas Day Game Included! 🎅

December 24, 2020

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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Happy holidays to all you fine folks out there! For obvious reasons, the NFL schedule shakes out a bit differently this week. Even though it isn’t technically being played in primetime, we’ll be covering the Christmas Day showdown between the Vikings and Saints which kicks off at 4:30 ET on Friday. Then we’ll get into the Saturday night match-up between the Raiders and Dolphins followed by SNF (Titans @ Packers) and MNF (Bills @ Pats). I’m really liking this set of games -- that Sunday Night Football game has the potential to be one of the best games of the late season. Let’s fly into it!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this ***Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide*** for some important info and advice!

Christmas Day Game

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (-7) | 51.5 O/U

Implied Points -- MIN: 22.3, NO: 29.3

Notable Offensive Injuries: WR Michael Thomas (ankle) - IR/Out, WR Tre’quan Smith (ankle) - Questionable, TE Kyle Rudolph (foot) - Questionable, RB Alexander Mattison (concussion) - Questionable

After missing a month of action due to cracking just about his entire ribcage, Drew Brees clearly had some rust to shake off in week 15 against the Chiefs. He completed just 15-of-34 passes (44.1%), yet he still threw for three scores and nearly mounted a late-game comeback against the current Super Bowl LV favorites. The Saints receiving corps is pretty banged up right now, but if Brees is closer to his normal self, he’s done “a lot with a little” in plenty of games throughout his career. Meanwhile, the Vikings and their mid-season playoff push have come to an end after losing their previous two games to the Bucs and Bears. While they’re not mathematically eliminated from the postseason equation, they’ll essentially be playing spoiler to New Orleans’ push for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and that’s about it. While Minnesota has the offensive firepower to pull off the upset, I’d side with the Saints covering the seven points here and I’m slightly on board with the over, but not super confident on that call.

Score Prediction: Saints - 31, Vikings - 23

Lineup Construction: 4-2 (NO) and balanced 3-3 builds will be the safest and most popular approach. If you’re looking to be contrarian in GPPs, roll out either 4-2 (MIN) or 5-1 (NO) Saints smash builds.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets (Core Players): QB Drew Brees*, QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook*, RB Alvin Kamara*, WR Adam Thielen, WR Jordan Jefferson

*Preferred captain plays

WR Emmanuel Sanders | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

With Michael Thomas on IR and Tre’Quan Smith looking iffy to play, Sanders probably deserves to be a core play in Christmas Day showdown slates. In the extended time period that Thomas was sidelined (weeks 2 thru 8), Sanders was second on the team with a 22% target share (behind Kamara - 25.8%) and accounted for basically a third (32.8%) of the Saints total air yards. Sanders runs 68% of his routes on the perimeter, the Vikings allow the 6th most FPPG to perimeter receivers. If Minnesota makes this a somewhat competitive game, we could get a ceiling game out of Manny this week. 

WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

This obviously requires Humphrey to be elevated back to the active roster ahead of Friday’s game but, assuming he is suited up on game day , he may be a worthy value sleeper to invest in for showdown GPPs. With Thomas out last week, Humphrey drew the start and played 49% of snaps. It was a relatively quiet day for the second year receiver out of Texas until he caught a late 4th quarter touchdown to bring the Saints to within three points. After Tre-Quan Smith’s ankle injury, fellow WR Juwan Johnson out-snapped Humphrey 42 to 27, but ended the day catch-less on four targets. Both guys are in the Michael Thomas mold standing at 6’3” (Johnson) and 6’4” (Humphrey) but, as of now, I believe I’d be more comfortable rolling with Humphrey as a flier.

Update: I just saw that WR Marquez Callaway is being activated from IR. If he is good to go this week, I imagine Humphrey may not be elevated from the practice squad. You can pretty much replace my sentiments for Humphrey for Callaway if he starts alongside Sanders and Smith (ankle).

TE Irv Smith Jr. | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

The touch/target share is very narrow in Minnesota. Dalvin Cook is obviously one of the few true workhorse RBs in the league while Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson dominate things through the air. Between those three, they account for 64% of the Vikings target share this season. Thielen and Jefferson have also drawn an absurd 72% of their total air yards. All that to say… there isn’t very much meat left on the bone for all of the other offensive options. BUT, with Rudolph very possibly out on Christmas Day (would be kind of ironic), Irv Smith Jr. has a decent chance to get a handful of catches and about 50 yards and a TD. TE Tyler Conklin has actually had a couple of fantasy-relevant games in a row as well, but Smith is the more athletically gifted of the two and should be in on at least 80% of snaps.

Saturday Night Football

Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders | 47.5 O/U

Implied Points -- MIA: 25.3, LV: 22.3

Notable Offensive Injuries: QB Derek Carr (groin) - Questionable, WR Davante Parker (hamstring) - Questionable, WR Henry Ruggs III (C19) - TBD, WR Jakeem Grant (hamstring) - Questionable, WR Hunter Renfrow (concussion) - Questionable, TE Mike Gesicki (shoulder) - Questionable

This AFC match-up will cap off the three-game Saturday slate. There are a number of injury situations to monitor heading into this game so be sure to keep an eye on the practice reports heading into the weekend. The main concern is whether or not Derek Carr will be able to play following a groin injury sustained early in last week’s Thursday Night Football game. Whether or not he can go, I’m not sure we should downgrade this Raiders offense too much considering how solid Marcus Mariota looked in his extended opportunity off the bench. It’s also pretty telling that there is even a line out on this game. When most starting NFL QBs are questionable to play, you rarely see Vegas post a spread/total until there is more clarity on the situation closer to game time. The Raiders really have no reason to play Carr considering they’re now an extreme long shot at making the postseason but we’ll see what John Gruden decides. Meanwhile, the 9-5 Dolphins should be highly motivated in this game considering their postseason hopes really depend on grabbing a win here. I’m feeling the Dolphins covering here and the 47.5 point total seems a tad low, so I’d side with the over hitting as well.

Score Prediction: Dolphins - 28, Raiders - 22

Lineup Construction: Pretty basic approach with 4-2 (both teams) and 3-3 being the primary builds. I’m not sure either team is capable of full on blowing out the other, so no real 5-1 interest here.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets (Core Players): QB Tua Tagovailoa*, QB Derek Carr OR Marcus Mariota, RB Josh Jacobs, TE Darren Waller*

*Preferred captain plays

RB Myles Gaskin | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

This Miami backfield may be a bit tricky to figure out this week. After missing the last two games, Gaskin was activated today (Wednesday) off of the reserve/COVID-19 list and should likely be expected to step right back into the lead role. However, Salvon Ahmed looked quite impressive against the Patriots on Sunday when he racked up 122 yards and a TD on 23 carries (5.3 YPC). When Gaskin returned from his four game absence between weeks 9 and 12, he immediately handled 23 total touches as the Dolphins’ workhorse but that was a week where Ahmed was out with a shoulder injury (Matt Brieda was also out). I still believe, in a competitive game, Gaskin is the guy to own and should get the majority of work but perhaps throw Ahmed out there in some lineups as well. The Raiders allow the 4th most FPPG to RBs so whoever gets the volume will likely have a solid fantasy day.

WR Lynn Bowden Jr. | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

While it hasn’t amounted to insane fantasy numbers, Bowden’s 16 targets over the last two weeks represent a team-leading 22% target share in that span. His targets are low aDOT looks with high catch probability, so he may not be a threat to score any 50+ yard TDs, but he should provide a solid floor. This would be just his 4th time playing in an NFL game, so it is tough to say what the versatile rookie’s ceiling games could look like. But we do know the Miami receiving corps is pretty beat up at the moment so the opportunity should continue to be there. The Raiders have allowed the 5th most FPPG to slot receivers this season, which is where Bowden aligns on 72% of routes.

WR Nelson Agholor | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Every Raider receiver is vying to play second fiddle to TE Darren Waller but Agholor has a very defined role in this offense. His output is inconsistent but among NFL WRs with at least 50 targets, Agholor has the 4th highest aDOT in the league. Also among qualified WRs, his 16.3 yards per catch average ranks 5th. If Hunter Renfroe can’t go, Agholor could also see more high-percentage looks on short-to-intermediate routes and there’s also no guarantee that Henry Ruggs III will see a high amount of snaps (assuming he returns from the reserve/COVID-19 list). Ultimately, things could work out to where Agholor is either the first or second read on the majority of dropbacks.

Sunday Night Football

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers (-3) | 56 O/U

Implied Points -- TEN: 26.5, GB: 29.5

Notable Offensive Injuries: WR AJ Brown (ankle) - Questionable, RB Jamaal Williams (quads) - Questionable

As I stated in the intro, this game has some potential to be a thriller to wrap up the holiday weekend. It may be a stretch to call this a potential Super Bowl preview but at times this year both of these teams have looked deserving of top 2-5 ranking status behind the Chiefs. Both the Packers and Titans possess super balanced offenses led by QBs who rank atop the league in QBR (Rodgers - 1st, Tannehill - 4th). Rodgers and Tannehill are backed up by rushing attacks that rank inside the top 10 in YPG (Derrick Henry/Titans - 2nd, Aaron Jones/Packers - 8th). This 56 point total is lofty but we should probably expect the over to hit and I could even see this total reaching 57.5 or 58 by kickoff. I’m also putting the Packers on upset alert. They’ve looked great this year but they only have one win against a team with a winning record (Saints) and the Titans offense has simply been borderline unstoppable over the last month (39.3 PPG last four games). Also, here’s some bad news: Green Bay has given up the 4th most FPPG to RBs and that Derrick Henry dude is coming to Lambeau. Just the thought of tackling Henry in the open field in 25 degree temperatures makes my body hurt.

Score Prediction: Titans - 34, Packers - 31

Lineup Construction: Like most games with a <3.5 point spread, balanced 3-3 and 4-2 (both teams) builds are what should primarily be in play. Since I’m kinda feeling the small upset brewing here, I’m slightly more inclined to build 4-2 lineups favoring the Titans.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets (Core Players): QB Ryan Tannehill, QB Aaron Rodgers*, RB Derrick Henry*, RB Aaron Jones*, WR AJ Brown, WR Davante Adams*

WR Corey Davis | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

This game is loaded with some absolute studs and there’s no doubt that thousands of season long championships are going to be decided by this game. Corey Davis is a fringe “best bet” play considering he’s averaging 5 catches for 79 YPG this season, 5.3 for 99 the last four games. However, the match-up isn’t the greatest considering Green Bay has given up the 2nd fewest FPPG to perimeter receivers (where Davis runs 78% of routes) over the last four games. Though, the opposing QB play has to be taken into account in Green Bay’s last four games: Panthers (Bridgewater), Detroit (Stafford), Eagles (Wentz pre-benching), Bears (Trubisky). Not exactly an overly difficult gauntlet. The Packers top DB, Jaire Alexander, has been one of the best corners in the league this season. He likely spends time switching between covering both AJ Brown and Corey Davis.. though there is an outside chance that Brown draws shadow coverage from Alexander. In that scenario, I like Davis’ fantasy outlook quite a bit more.

TE Robert Tonyan | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Tonyan has become arguably the number two option in this Packers passing attack behind Davante Adams. Over the last five games, Bobby Tonyan has brought in 22-of-24 targets (16% target share ranks 2nd on the team in that span) for 204 yards and has reeled in a touchdown in each game. While he is a bit TD-dependent, ya can’t ignore the consistency at this point. He’s maybe more of a mid-range FLEX play to consider but, in a potential shootout, his odds of finding the endzone seem fairly strong.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

It’s pretty much “all or nothing” with MVS. He gives you a big game or he just completely burns you, not much in between. Among WRs with at least 50 targets, his aDOT of 17.7 yards is the highest in the league. Unsurprisingly, he also leads the league with a 19.5 YPC average. The Titans have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to WRs this year but the timely return of CB Adoree Jackson should boost their secondary, which makes MVS even riskier. But, even though it has seemed to be the case at times this season, Aaron Rodgers can’t ONLY throw to Davante Adams in this game.

Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills (-7) at New England Patriots | 46 O/U

Implied Points -- BUF: 26.5, NE: 19.5

Notable Offensive Injuries: WR Stefon Diggs (foot) - Questionable, RB Damien Harris (ankle) - Questionable

Oh how quickly the tables can turn within a division. The 6-8 Pats, eliminated from playoff contention, are now sitting on the outside looking in within the AFC East as the 11-3 Bills look to make a run at the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. The Bills are right up there with the Titans as one of the hottest teams in the league coming down the home stretch of the regular season. Josh Allen has seemingly taken ‘the next step’ in his progression as a pro QB and it’s certainly fun to watch. Allen and the Bills still have the difficult task of going against a Bill Belichick-coached team, which should never be taken lightly (see; Chargers vs. Patriots, Week 13). The forecast is going to be worth watching between now and Monday night. A lot can change in the meantime, but currently there is an 80% chance of rain all evening in Foxboro with temps in the low-to-mid 40s. In that scenario, we could see a fairly sloppy and potentially lower-scoring game. I’m not putting much faith in the call, but I believe the Pats can cover seven points here and I could easily see the under hitting as well.

Score Prediction: Bills - 24, Patriots - 20

Lineup Construction: I’ll favor the 4-2 (Bills) approach with some balanced 3-3 builds sprinkled in. I also don’t mind some lower exposure to 5-1 Bills smash builds, just in case everything keeps clicking for Buffalo and the Pats continue to struggle offensively.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets (Core Players): QB Josh Allen*, QB Cam Newton, WR Stefon Diggs*, Bills DST

*Preferred captain plays

WR Jakobi Meyers | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Trusting any of Cam Newton’s (183.2 passing YPG) targets is a risky proposition, but Meyers is quite easily the best bet to go with. The majority of his routes are run out of the slot (Bills 9th most FPPG to slot WRs) so he should get to avoid coverage from Bills top DBs Tre-Davious White and Levi Wallace. Both guys rarely travel into slot coverage. When the Pats faced the Bills back in week eight, Meyers drew ten targets, catching six for 58 yards. Not a tremendous stat line there but in the second meeting of the 2020 season between these teams, Meyers probably has a solid floor here.

RB Zack Moss | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

The Bills running backs lose some upside due to Josh Allen’s rushing prowess but if it comes down to choosing between Moss and Devin Singletary, I think the most sensible option would be Moss. Singletary got a garbage time 51-yard TD last week and has the better looking fantasy totals as of late. However, Moss has out-touched Singletary 26 to 19 over the last few weeks and, even though it has been fruitless, he has been given more cracks at goal line touches as well. In a potentially sloppy weather game, the backfields could benefit here. Moss also had the best game of his rookie campaign against New England in week eight, going for 81 yards and two TDs on 14 carries (5.8 YPC).

K Tyler Bass | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

Bad weather be damned, Tyler Bass is a legitimate fantasy asset and someone to keep within FLEX consideration for any Bills DFS showdown slate. He’s reached double-digit fantasy points in six of Buffalo’s last eight games. The Patriots defense is good but not great, so we could see the Bills move the ball well between the 20s against them but stall out before reaching the redzone. Also, on the weather front, while it may be rainy, the winds aren’t currently projected to be bad at all (6-8 mph) so Bass shouldn’t be downgraded too much. 

That will wrap us up for the Week 16 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate break down linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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