Week 17 Primetime Preview 📺 | A Sunday Night Showdown to Decide the NFC East

January 02, 2021

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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The Sunday night tilt between the Eagles and the Football Team will be the final primetime showdown of the regular season. It’s also going to decide which team wins the NFC East pillow fight and advances into the postseason. Things are pretty simple for Washington -- win and you’re in. However, if Philadelphia comes away with the dub, the winner of the Sunday afternoon game between the Giants and Cowboys will be declared NFC East champs and earn a playoff berth. As much fun as we’ve had teasing these NFC East teams throughout the season, Washington and Dallas in particular are a couple of teams I don’t believe should be taken lightly if either ends up earning their way into the playoffs.

Washington has a legitimate top 10 defense and has held opponents to 20 points or less for six consecutive games. Meanwhile, the Dallas offense is starting to click behind Andy Dalton as the Cowboys have averaged 36 PPG over their last three. But we’re all here for DFS purposes so let’s get a look at some potential showdown strategies and plays for this regular season finale!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this ***Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide*** for some important info and advice!

Sunday Night Football

Washington Football Team (-3.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles | 43 O/U

Implied Points -- WAS: 23.3, PHI: 19.8

Notable Offensive Injuries:

RB Miles Sanders (knee) - Out

WR Terry McLaurin (ankle) - Questionable

QB Alex Smith (calf) - Questionable, expected to start

RB Antonio Gibson (toe) - Questionable

TE Dallas Goedert (calf) - Out

WR Desean Jackson (ankle) - Out

TE Richard Rodgers (ankle) - Out

As you can see by the list above, injuries are plaguing both teams in this game and that is just a list of notable offensive skill position players who are ailing. Depending on whether or not guys like McLaurin and/or Gibson can suit up, this could be a great week to leave a good chunk of salary on the table in showdown DFS contests. For Philly, the big question will be which offense shows up for them. Under QB Jalen Hurts, they have looked really dangerous and dynamic at times over the last few games -- and other times, they appear to be just as inept as they were with the struggling Carson Wentz at the helm. A pivotal match-up will also be the elite Washington D-Line, led by the likely rookie DPOY in Chase Young, against a shaky Philly O-Line. The mobility of Hurts will certainly help, but when these two teams faced off way back in week one, Washington was able to rack up eight sacks and a fumble recovery. Alex Smith (calf) is expected to start under center for the Football Team this Sunday night, which is obviously good news if you’re a Washington fan, but this offense has struggled considerably over the last month. It will be a major boost for that squad if both McLaurin and Gibson can suit up.

We also might need to anticipate some sloppy field conditions, at least for the majority of this game. There is currently about a 60-75% chance of rain in Philadelphia between 8 pm ET and 10 pm ET on Sunday evening. We’ll see how much that impacts the game flow of this one. I believe that Washington D-Line will be the x-factor here. Without Miles Sanders available, I believe they will force Jalen Hurts to shoulder just about the entirety of the Philly offense which may lead to several drive killing sacks and at least a couple of crucial game-changing mistakes.

Score Prediction: Football Team - 24, Eagles - 20

Players to Consider:

Best Bets (Core Players): QB Alex Smith, QB Jalen Hurts*, RB Antonio Gibson (if active), RB JD McKissic*, RB Boston Scott*, TE Logan Thomas*, WR Terry McLaurin (if active), Washington DST

*Preferred Captain Plays

TE Zach Ertz | $4,600 | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Ertz’s 2020 campaign was a major disappointment compared to his previous couple of seasons, to say the least. He has been hampered by injuries but he’s also been overshadowed at times by fellow TE Dallas Goedert. With Goedert already ruled out for this week with a calf injury, that should clearly open things up for Ertz to have a potential ceiling game. Ertz has actually garnered seven targets in back-to-back weeks -- solid volume by NFL tight end standards. But the inaccuracy of Jalen Hurts has translated those 14 targets into just five catches for 102 yards. Miles Sanders and Goedert represent just over a 30% target share in this Eagles offense. Those looks have to go elsewhere and Ertz should be a prime candidate to benefit from their absences, particularly in the redzone. Washington is stout against TEs (8th fewest FPPG allowed) but Ertz could hit value through volume alone. The sloppy weather could also force more short-to-intermediate passes, which is right in Ertz’s wheelhouse (7.68 yard aDOT).

WR Cam Sims | $4,800 | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Even if Terry McClaurin is able to suit up, Cam Sims should be on the field for basically every offensive snap. With McLaurin out last week, Sims played 100% of snaps. In the three previous weeks (with McLaurin active), Sims played 86%, 94%, and 96% of snaps. In three of the last four weeks, Sims has seen at least eight targets head his way and he has accounted for 25% of Washington’s overall team air yards. He is a huge 6’5” target who sees some deep ball looks (12.36 yard aDOT last four games). He’ll be a bit boom-or-bust considering deep passes may be fairly rare if the weather is rough. The Washington passing offense also moves through WR Terry McLaurin, TE Logan Thomas, and (lately) RB JD McKissic, but Cam Sims is worth a shot in GPP builds. As you can see below, opposing WR2s have found success against this Eagles secondary in recent weeks.

WR Greg Ward | $5,800 | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Ward’s 69 snaps in week 16 (90% snap rate) led all wide receivers by a considerable margin -- Jalen Reagor was the next closest with 44 snaps (59%). Without Goedert and Sanders, Ward is another guy whose role out of the slot (88% routes ran from the slot) could hold increased importance against a Washington defense that has allowed the 13th most FPPG to slot WRs over the last month. While Ward was pretty quiet last week, he did catch two touchdowns from Jalen Hurts in week 15. He may not be a slam dunk play, but he has about as good of odds as anyone in this offense to find the endzone on Sunday night.

That will wrap us up for the Week 17 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate break down linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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