Week 3 Primetime Preview | No Shortage of Star Power

September 24, 2020

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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This trio of TNF/SNF/MNF match-ups in week three may be the one of the best sets of primetime games we’ll see all season. We’ll have a sneaky intriguing clash between a pair of fantasy friendly Florida teams and two other games that could very realistically turn out to be NFC and AFC championship game previews.

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to the top portion of week one’s “Primetime Preview” for some info and advice!

Thursday Night Football

Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) | 48 O/U

MIA: 22.5 implied points | JAX: 25.5 implied points

MIA: 13th in offensive tempo | JAX: 26th in offensive tempo

Every team in the league is promised at least one primetime game throughout the season. Many folks may look at this match-up and just assume the NFL decided to kill two birds with one stone. Why feature the Jaguars and Dolphins in two separate weeks on primetime when you can knock out each of these team’s primetime game simultaneously on the same night, early in the season? That may have actually been the reasoning because, let’s be honest, neither the Dolphins (without Tua Tagovailoa starting) or the Jaguars (post Minshew-mania honeymoon phase) carry much national interest. But from a fantasy/DFS standpoint, I think we may have a sneaky entertaining game on our hands to kick off week three. The total opened for this game at 44 points and has rapidly risen to 48 points. That’s a sort of leap you don’t see all too often in the NFL but, for this particular match-up, it isn’t much of a surprise that the public jumped on the over early in the week. Through two weeks, Miami ranks dead last in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and Jacksonville checks in at 27th in DVOA. The offensive pace may not be incredibly high, as you can see above that neither team moves the ball at a remarkably fast tempo, but neither offense should experience too much difficulty moving the ball against the opposing defense.

Key Injury News: DJ Chark (chest/back) is currently listed as questionable.

Lineup Construction: Given the close spread, a 3-3 build seems the most logical. However, both teams involve quite a few playmakers on offense and have a wide variety of guys that can get involved, so a 4-2 build (in either direction) makes plenty of sense. I highly doubt either team pulls away in this game, so a 5-1 build is off the table for me, personally.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: Gardner Minshew II, Ryan Fitzpatrick, James Robinson, DJ Chark Jr. (if starting), DeVante Parker

WR Laviska Shenault Jr. | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Minshew has spread the ball around about as much as any other QB in the league through two weeks. Five Jags pass catchers have seen between an 11% and 17.5% target share. What makes Shenault interesting is his dynamic role in this offense. In terms of offensive snap percentage, he is third among Jags WRs with a 59% Snap% (Chark 81%, Cole 67%) and only has an 11% target share. However, Shenault has already been given seven hand-offs on the season and is essentially being given a rush attempt on 10% of his snaps. Jacksonville took Shenault in the second round (42nd overall) out of Colorado in the 2020 NFL Draft and he’s a rookie who I was high on coming into the season. I believe Shenault’s versatile role should only continue to grow and this is easily the most forgiving defense the Jags have faced up to this point.

TE Mike Gesicki | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Gesicki is coming off of a monster game in week two where he caught 8-of-11 targets for 130 yards and a TD. Ryan Fitzpatrick is another QB who has been generous with the amount of players he involves in the passing game (five players with a 15+% target share) but Gesicki leads the way early on with a 20.7% target share. Through two weeks, the Jags defense has allowed the 4th most DKFP to TEs and should provide a much softer match-up for Gesicki compared to the previous two defenses he’s had to play against (Buffalo & New England). Gesicki can be a nightmarish athletic mismatch against both linebackers and cornerbacks. He is well thought of as a “wide receiver disguised as a tight end.” This Adam Levitan tweet below has more juicy tidbits on why Gesicki should be on your radar this week, and many weeks moving forward.

WR Isaiah Ford | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Ford is just $3,000 on the DraftKings showdown pricing so I believe he may be a popular guy to go with if you want to roster several of the most expensive targets in this game. Ford has 13 targets through two weeks (nine in week two) which equates to a 17.8% target share and is tied for the second highest on the team alongside DeVante Parker. Ford has lined up in the slot on 95% of his snaps and will draw a plus match-up with Jags slot corner, DJ Hayden (lines up against the slot on 93% of pass routes). The Jags have allowed the 6th most FPPG to slot receivers through two games.

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints (-3) | 52.5 O/U

GB: 24.8 implied points | NO: 27.8 implied points

GB: 31st in offensive tempo | NO: 16th in offensive tempo

We should have a really good one brewing here, as two future Hall of Fame veteran QBs clash down in New Orleans. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are tops in the NFL after two weeks, with 85 points scored (42.5 PPG). After many people wrote the Packers off in the preseason, it’s apparent that they’re dead set on postseason aspirations… but I still question the decision on drafting a scout team QB in the first round (in a draft that was loaded with WR talent) when your all-star quarterback NEEDS weapons. Meanwhile, Drew Brees and the Saints are coming off of a fairly surprising loss and looked out of sync during much of their time on the field against the Las Vegas Raiders this past Monday night. Brees has historically always performed much better at home throughout his career, so we’ll see if the Saints can actually bounce back on a short week. The obvious news to watch here is the health status on two of the league’s best wide receivers. Michael Thomas’ (ankle) absence from this offense on Monday night was very apparent and a key contributing factor to the Saints loss (not to take any credit from the Raiders). Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers’ primary target, Davante Adams, suffered a hamstring injury in the second half against Detroit. As of Wednesday, neither guy is practicing and will be highly questionable for week two. As of now, I’d feel better about Adams’ chances of playing as opposed to Thomas’.

Key Injury News: Michael Thomas (ankle), Davante Adams (hamstring) -- both questionable.

Lineup Construction: Again, a 3-3 build makes the most sense but I’m really interested in the possibility of an upset here, especially if MT can’t go, so a 4-2 (GB-NO) build could be on the table.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Michael Thomas (if healthy), Davante Adams (if healthy)

WR Tre’Quan Smith | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

So much of this game depends on the health of the two Pro Bowl WRs on each side of the ball. For now, I’m going to assume Thomas sits for a second week in a row. While Emmanuel Sanders was doing his best cosplay of a ghost on Monday Night Football (3 targets, 1 catch, 18 yards), Tre’Quan Smith seemed to be more involved in the “Michael Thomas” role as he turned several quick slants and some curl routes into five catches (on seven targets) for 86 yards. Smith is entering his third NFL season out of UCF and has been overshadowed by other playmakers on this offense, but the guy has plenty of talent and can show off his skillset given the right amount of opportunity.

WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

I’m on board with MVS regardless of whether Davante Adams suits up or not, but obviously he’ll get a significant bump with Adams off the field. Among receivers with at least ten targets this season, MVS (13 targets) ranks 4th with an aDOT (average depth of target) of 16.5 yards. He’s the deep threat in this Packers offense and will only need a couple big plays to pay off handsomely in showdown lineups.

QB Taysom Hill | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

This is more of a "throw caution into the wind" kind of pick because you never truly know what Taysom Hill’s role will be in any given Saints game. However, he’s going to be cheap and is capable of working as a runner, receiver, and quarterback all in the same game. Hill is a pure gimmick option but he’s likely going to score a few touchdowns this season and does see some routine redzone work. He’s worth some exposure in showdown formats if you run multiple lineups.

Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (-3) | 54 O/U

KC: 25.5 implied points | BAL: 28.5 implied points

KC: 17th in offensive tempo | BAL: 30th in offensive tempo

Alright, so who is NOT tuning into this game? Got non-football plans? Cancel ‘em. Gotta work? No, you’re sick that evening. Kids won’t leave you alone? Looks like bedtime comes early on Monday night. Hmm, what is there to really point out with this one? Every football fan is pretty familiar with these two teams and the superstars that lead them. To the surprise of most, the Chiefs did need overtime to beat a Justin Herbert-led Chargers this past Sunday. They certainly didn’t look like the typical explosive offense that we’ve grown accustomed to, but I wouldn’t expect their struggles to last long. That Chargers defense probably deserves a bit more respect, if we’re being honest. While Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense coasted to another comfortable win, we should acknowledge the fact that they come into week three as the more complete looking team. Not only have they scored 33+ points each of the first two weeks, but their defense also ranks 3rd in the NFL in DVOA (Chiefs rank 23rd). If any team is built to stuff Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense in a hole on the scoreboard, it’s this Ravens team. I can’t wait to find out how this one shakes out!

Key Injury News: Sammy Watkins (head) -- currently questionable but likely plays.

Lineup Construction: I believe I’d go 3-3 all the way here but if the Chiefs continue to look a little off on offense, like they did last week, then a 4-2 (BAL-KC) build may prove to be optimal.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Travis Kelce

WR Miles Boykin | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Lamar Jackson has only had to throw 49 times through two games, but he’s also completing a remarkable 77.6% of his passes. Marquise Brown leads the Ravens with 13 targets (26.5% target share) but Boykin is tied with TE Mark Andrews at second with nine targets (18.4% target share). The Chiefs can obviously force the Ravens into a more pass-happy gameplan, as they did in week three of last season when Jackson attempted 43 passes in a 28-33 loss. Boykin leads all Ravens WRs with a 71% snap rate and the Chiefs have given up the 9th most FPPG to receivers lining up on the left side of the field, which is where Boykin lines up 72% of the time.

RB Mark Ingram II | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

For the foreseeable future, it’s going to be very difficult figuring this Ravens backfield out. Ingram leads the way with 21 combined touches, followed by Gus Edwards (14), and rookie JK Dobbins (10). Of course, on top of that you have Lamar Jackson who has run 23 times so far this season. The Ravens led the NFL in rushing play percentage in 2019 when they ran on 54.07% of plays. They’re basically right on par with that once again this year (54.47%, ranks 3rd) so there are still plenty of opportunities to be had. The Chiefs have given up the fifth most yards rushing to the RB position as well as the fifth most receiving yards. As of now, I believe Ingram is the preferred pass-catching RB and should continue to edge out the other two RBs in snaps, for now. On a team that can move the ball at will, and probably wants to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines, I believe we could get a strong fantasy day out of Ingram if he sees around 15 total touches.

K Harrison Butker | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

Going with a kicker is never the sexy play but you have to figure about 80% of the Chiefs receiving/rushing offense is going to come from the ‘obvious’ captain selections listed above (Kelce, CEH, Hill). Rolling out Watkins (if healthy), Demarcus Robinson, or Mecole Hardman can work out if they find the endzone, but it’s all a roll of the dice with those guys. While playing a kicker as the captain selection is sub-optimal about 97% of the time, I do think Butker has a solid chance at hitting double digit fantasy points in this game and is highly rosterable outside of that captain slot. The Chiefs can move the ball against anybody, but the Ravens defense is also very good and will cause plenty of Kansas City drives to stall, possibly on a number of occasions inside of field goal range. Butker is one of the best kickers for fantasy purposes and all it would take is a couple long FGs (on top of PATs) to potentially land him in the perfect lineup. He’ll also be a solid option when looking to save some salary so you can afford to load up on those other stud players.

That will wrap us up for the Week 3 Primtime Preview! Be on the look out for the full main slate breakdown tomorrow. Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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