By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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This week’s set of TNF/SNF/MNF games aren’t the most sexy primetime match-ups but football is football, right guys? Injuries will play a factor in all three of these games, as key players are currently listed as out, doubtful, or questionable across the board. Stay informed and adjust your showdown lineup strategies and approaches accordingly!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide for some important info and advice!

Thursday Night Football

Denver Broncos (-1) @ New York Jets | 40 O/U

DEN: 20.5 implied points | NYJ: 19.5 implied points

DEN: 11th in offensive tempo | NYJ: 10th in offensive tempo

Yeah, so even with the closest spread of any NFL game this week, I’m not going to ‘put lipstick on a pig’ and pretend like this match-up is going to be must-watch TV. I’ve talked about this in the general NFL Strategy Guide, but this may be a good week to play the Thursday-Monday slate and outright fade every player in this TNF game with the exception of maybe the defenses. Let other people take the risk on rostering sub-optimal players in a game that could legitimately end up with a 17-13 kinda score. The 40 point over/under is pretty easily the lowest total of the week and currently 60% of the public is betting the under (per actionnetwork.com).

Both of these teams are riddled with injuries and possess offenses that rank among the bottom three in the NFL in terms of points per game. Through three weeks, the Broncos have averaged just 15.0 PPG (ranks 30th) while the Jets have only managed 12.3 PPG (last). Both the Broncos and the Jets have, on average, played at a relatively fast pace offensively (which is always good for fantasy scoring purposes) but we can likely attribute that to the fact that they have been playing from behind in all of their games. In a neutral game script, or one where either team gets a 7+ point lead, we can likely expect a slower offensive tempo. I’d be pleasantly surprised to see this game turn into an entertaining one but it is hard to envision that happening for now.

Notable Offensive Injuries: QB Drew Lock (shoulder) - out, RB Le’Veon Bell (hamstring) - IR, RB Phillip Lindsay (toe) - questionable, WR Jamison Crowder (hamstring) - questionable, WR Chris Hogan (rips/knee) - questionable, WR Breshad Perriman (ankle) - out, WR Courtland Sutton (ACL) - IR

Lineup Construction: With this game essentially being a pick ‘em, a 3-3 build seems like the most favorable. However, Sam Darnold has flashed some solid surprise performances throughout his career. Meanwhile, the Broncos are starting their third QB in as many weeks, so I could see a case to be made for a 4-2 build (NYJ-DEN) being the GPP winning approach.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: QB Sam Darnold, QB Brett Rypien (meh), RB Melvin Gordon III, TE Noah Fant

WR Braxton Berrios | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

This is fairly dependent on the availability of Jets WRs Crowder and Hogan -- but mostly Crowder since both he and Berrios are primarily utilized out of the slot. Just from reading a couple reports from Jets beat reporters, it would seem that Crowder is closer to ‘doubtful,’ so I’m moving forward with Berrios as being a guy to target on Thursday night. With Crowder sidelined the last two weeks, Berrios has garnered 12 targets and has caught a touchdown in each game. The Broncos are fairly average against the slot and have allowed the 16th most FPPG to slot WRs. Again, assuming Crowder is out, we should likely expect Berrios to be Darnold’s first or second look on many dropbacks.

TE Chris Herndon | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Herndon was a pretty popular sleeper tight end selection in season long this year but he’s been a major dud up to this point. The good news is that this could easily be his best game of the young season, even in a potential low scoring affair. Herndon’s production hasn’t been there but the opportunity has been. His 18.3% target share leads the team and the Broncos have given up the 8th most FPPG to tight ends this season. Two of Herndon’s match-ups (Colts & 49ers) have been the two stingiest fantasy match-ups for TEs this season, so we’ll see what Herndon can do with his looks this week. I would guess he’ll see a minimum of six targets and should be a primary option in the redzone.

WR Jerry Jeudy | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

The Broncos passing game is going to be a bit of a mystery with third stringer Brett Rypien under center, but we should still assume that Denver is going to look to feature their extremely talented rookie wide receiver. Jeudy’s 24 targets this season equate to a team-leading 21.1% target share and he accounts for 26.4% of Denver’s targeted air yards. Jeudy has lined up in the slot on 84% of his routes and the Jets have allowed the 8th most FPPG to slot WRs this season. He does need to limit the dropped passes, as he already has a couple this season that could have gone for big plays. But perhaps we’ll see a breakout game from the rookie out of Bama on Thursday night.

Sunday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers (-7) | 45 O/U

PHI: 19 implied points | SF: 26 implied points

PHI: 8th in offensive tempo | SF: 29th in offensive tempo

Man, speaking of teams that have been difficult to watch, the Eagles just haven’t gotten much of anything going yet this year. Now they have to travel to San Francisco who basically deployed it’s B team last week and was still able to roll to a 36-9 win… given, that was against the Giants… still impressive in my book. Plenty of injury implications will also rest within this match-up but hopefully by Friday or Saturday we’ll have a pretty decent idea of who will be suiting up. Both defenses rank inside the top half of the league in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) so that relatively low 45 point total seems appropriate to me. If the Eagles can’t force some turnovers, this appears to be a very winnable game for the 49ers, who may also be getting All-World TE George Kittle back in the offensive huddle.

Notable Offensive Injuries: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) - questionable, RB Raheem Mostert (knee) - questionable, RB Jerick McKinnon (ribs) - questionable, RB Tevin Coleman (knee) - IR, TE George Kittle (knee) - questionable, TE Jordan Reed (knee) - IR, TE Dallas Goedert (ankle) - IR, WR Alshon Jeffery (foot) - questionable, WR Deebo Samuel (foot) - IR, WR Desean Jackson (hamstring) - questionable, WR Jalen Reagor (thumb) - IR

Lineup Construction: This is a strong pace-up spot for the 49ers who should be a bit healthier than they were in week three. Considering the lack of really viable options on the Eagles offense, a 4-2 build (SF-PHI) makes the most sense here for the majority of lineups. If I were to play 20 lineups for this game, I’d likely have about 60-65% of those lineups consist of the 4-2 (SF-PHI) construction.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: QB Carson Wentz, QB Nick Mullens (or Garoppolo, if starting), RB Miles Sanders, TE George Kittle (if starting), TE Zach Ertz

WR Brandon Aiyuk | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Given the noticeable chemistry Nick Mullens had with Aiyuk last week, I might prefer Aiyuk a bit more if Jimmy Garoppolo is out again this week. In just his second NFL game, Aiyuk logged a 73% snap rate (2nd among SF WRs, Kendrick Bourne 83%). He was utilized in both the passing game (8 tgt, 5 rec, 70 yds) and the running game (3 att, 31 yds, 1 TD) and ultimately racked up 21.1 DKFP. The Giants were a much softer match-up than the Eagles likely will be and TE George Kittle is on track to return this week and soak up plenty of targets. But it does seem apparent that Aiyuk is in that versatile “Deebo Samuel role” in this Shanahan offense. Aiyuk should be intentionally manufactured high success rate targets across the middle of the field as well as a few rushing attempts which will give him a strong fantasy ceiling. His floor isn’t exactly great since this is going to be just his third NFL game and there are a lot of injury implications on the 49ers offense leading up to this game. I’m still intrigued by him this week. The Eagles have given up the 7th most FPPG to perimeter receivers, which is where Aiyuk has lined up on 80% of his routes.

RB Jeff Wilson Jr. | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Raheem Mostert is not practicing as of Wednesday and now the oft-injured Jerick McKinnon is dealing with a rib contusion. My early feelings are that Mostert will sit out as he still deals with that MCL sprain, which is always a tricky injury. I believe McKinnon should suit up but he may have his role dialed back a bit this week. If that is indeed the case, Wilson steps in as the best RB candidate to lead the 49ers in touches. The RB touch market share and snap rates in the 49er backfield last week were as follows: McKinnon 17 touches (23.3% market share) & 62% Snap Rate, Wilson 15 touches (20.6% market share) & 30% Snap Rate. Meanwhile, JaMycal Hasty received three touches on an 8% snap rate. If the snap share gravitates more toward a 50/50 split with Wilson and McKinnon, he could churn out a solid fantasy day in a game that the 49ers could be leading for much of the way.

WR Greg Ward | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

The Eagles thin route tree loses another branch as TE Dallas Goedert had to be sent to IR after sustaining a small ankle fracture in week three. WR Desean Jackson was also forced out of the action last week when he sustained a hamstring injury -- as of Wednesday DJax is not practicing. Enter Greg Ward. Wentz sent 11 targets in the direction of Ward in that hard-to-watch game against Cincy that produced a 23-23 tie. Ward made the most of his opportunity and brought in eight catches for 72 yards and a TD. He’ll primarily run out of the slot, where he has run 81% of his routes thus far in 2020. The 49ers have only allowed the 7th fewest FPPG to slot receivers but Ward may be force-fed 10+ targets yet again, especially if San Francisco send most of their attention toward Zach Ertz operating in the middle of the field.

Monday Night Football

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (-7.5) | 58 O/U

ATL: 25.3 implied points | GB: 32.8 implied points

ATL: 2nd in offensive tempo | GB: 32nd in offensive tempo

If Green Bay wants to ensure a victory, perhaps they should just give Atlanta a two score lead in the fourth quarter? Really though, I feel for Falcons fans. Sorry you’re the butt of so many jokes after those historically bad meltdowns in back-to-back week. But seriously… how is Dan Quinn still employed after that? Anyhow, we could be in store for some offensive fireworks here as this 58 point total is the highest of the week and, if I’m not mistaken, the highest of the NFL season up to this point. The Packers are absolutely torching defenses while averaging an NFL-leading 40.7 PPG as Aaron Rodgers pushes toward being an early season MVP candidate. Meanwhile, the Falcons are scoring plenty of points as well. Their 30.0 PPG ranks 6th in the NFL. The obvious weakness with these teams is on the defensive side, as both teams rank in the bottom half in terms of DVOA. Atlanta is allowing a league-high 36.0 PPG, while Green Bay is 21st at 28.3 PPG allowed. There aren’t nearly as many injuries to worry about in this match-up compared to the two games mentioned above, but the ‘questionable’ status for two of the best wide receivers in the league (Adams & Julio) will certainly loom large heading into Monday. Even though this game carries a bit of blowout potential, it’ll definitely be the primetime game I’m personally looking forward to the most this week.

Notable Offensive Injuries: WR Davante Adams (hamstring) - questionable, WR Julio Jones (hamstring) - questionable, WR Russell Gage (head) - questionable

Lineup Construction: Assuming the normal starters are all in play, an even 3-3 build could be the safest play in this game considering the amount of viable options there are to choose from. However, I wouldn’t be opposed to throwing out a couple 5-1 builds (GB-ATL) in anticipation of a Packers blowout victory.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Matt Ryan, WR Davante Adams (if starting), WR Julio Jones (if starting), WR Calvin Ridley, RB Aaron Jones, RB Todd Gurley II

WR Allen Lazard | Captain Rating: ★★★★★

Lazard borderlines on “obvious” status after a breakout performance on Sunday Night Football against the Saints in which he hauled in six catches on eight targets for 146 yards and a TD while garnering a massive 37.1% of the Packers targeted air yards. His upside will clearly be limited if Davante Adams suits up, but it does seem like Lazard is the clear-cut number two receiving option in a prolific passing attack. Maybe we should all wipe the egg off our faces for berating the Packers front office after they didn’t take a high-end WR in the 2020 draft. Lazard will run the majority of his routes out of the slot. The Falcons have given up the 3rd most FPPG to slot WRs. He’ll be locked into a steady role in this offense for the foreseeable future.

TE Robert Tonyan | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Any remotely relevant pass catcher involved with the revitalized version of Aaron Rodgers should be considered for showdown DFS purposes. Tonyan has played about two-thirds of offensive snaps this season and last week he caught 5-of-5 targets for 50 yards and a score. Again, Adams sitting out would boost any other Packer pass catcher’s upside, but Tonyan may end up having a notable role moving forward regardless of what other receivers are sidelined. For a deep dive Hail Mary sort of play, potentially consider TE Jace Sternberger in the most contrarian of lineup builds. Sternberger was a third round pick by Green Bay in 2019 but missed most of his rookie season due to an ankle injury. His snap rate is starting to trend up after seeing 15% snap share in week one, 22% in week two, and 32% in week three when he caught all three of his targets for 36 yards. All it takes is a couple catches and a score to end up being an optimal showdown play and he’ll likely be very cheap once salaries are released for this game. Atlanta has given up the second most FPPG to TEs this season.

WR Russell Gage | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Gage will have to clear concussion protocol before he suits up for MNF. Assuming he does play, he has carved out a noticeable role in this high-volume Falcons passing attack. Even with Julio Jones healthy and playing in the first two weeks, Gage was in on 70% (week one) and 83% (week two) of snaps. Atlanta runs “11 personnel” (3 WR/1 RB/1 TE) on 64% of plays and Gage has commanded 24 targets in what equates to just over two games this season. When defenses have to focus on elite talents like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, that leads to plenty of advantageous coverage situations for a guy like Gage.

That will wrap us up for the Week 4 Primtime Preview! Be on the look out for the full main slate breakdown tomorrow. Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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