Week 5 NFL Primetime Preview | An Intro to Showdown Strategies

October 03, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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Welcome to the inaugural edition of LineStar’s “NFL Primetime Preview”! We’ve got you covered every week with NFL Takeaways, which focuses on a look back at the previous week and learning from certain games and performances. The Weekly Pylon is also sent out every Wednesday and gives you some recommendations on specific games and players to target in DFS at varying price points for the upcoming Sunday main slate. And of course, the PreSnap Podcast drops three shows a week and runs through all things NFL ranging from DFS to betting. But everyone loves primetime football so we thought we’d give you a bit more of a detailed look at each game with some recommended plays and strategic approaches.

Note: These Primetime Previews will almost exclusively be geared towards GPPs. In showdown cash games, most of the time you’re just going to load up on one or two quarterbacks, one or two high volume RB/WRs, and take kickers/defenses to save some salary with perhaps one other cheap value play. That approach will typically land you in the top half of double-ups and 50/50s.

Single game “showdown” NFL slates are becoming more and more popular. As such, sites like DraftKings and FanDuel have been rolling out a wider array of contests with larger prize pools. Many may think that in order to win an NFL showdown GPP you simply have to ‘luckbox’ your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate. Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport, you do need a bit of good fortune. But research and intelligent game theory truly makes all the difference.

So, what are some determining factors that should affect your NFL showdown lineup construction?

1) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predictive game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you really need to make your lineup tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game which will be in catch-up mode. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type low-scoring affair, then consider rostering both defenses (one perhaps in your captain/MVP slot) with a kicker while trying to find the skill position player(s) who happen to score the game’s one or two touchdowns. There are plenty of other ways that NFL games ultimately play out, but those are just a couple of basic examples.

2) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, and RB1s. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have been rising or somebody else that is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs. Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be either overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to exceed the field by rostering him in 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you’re limiting the potential upside of your lineups.

3) Choosing the Right Captain/MVP

This one is quite obvious, but the 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially GPPs. Combine the aforementioned strategies with your own thoughts and predictions to determine what approach you’re going to take with the ever valuable captain position.

Now that we’ve covered some strategic angles, let’s get into these games!

Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) | 49.5 O/U

LAR: 24 implied points | SEA: 25.5 implied points

Right off the bat, the Vegas lines tell us this should be a closely contested and relatively high scoring match-up. From an offensive tempo perspective, the Rams rank 3rd in the NFL in pace of play while the Seahawks rank 27th. With that in mind, we can anticipate a few more opportunities to be had for Seattle as they’ll face a major pace up opponent -- vice versa for Los Angeles. The Rams defense ranks 10th in overall DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and allow the 18th most FPPG while the Seahawks rank 17th in DVOA and allow the 21st most FPPG. So we’re dealing with two defenses who have been slightly above average through four weeks in the season.

Players to Consider:

Will Dissly | DK: $7.6k, FD: $10k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

With Nick Vannett shipped to the Steelers, Will Dissly played a season high 79% of snaps last week. He’s clearly taken on a key redzone role where, besides Russell Wilson, he leads the team with 31.9 DKFP. In the last three weeks he is second on the team with an 18% target share and has caught 18 of his 20 targets in that time. He will likely carry some high ownership but considering he has some legitimate multi-touchdown upside, rolling him in your captain roster spot may turn out to be a solid leverage option.

DK Metcalf | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★★

Metcalf actually leads this Seahawks team with seven redzone targets. The issue? He hasn’t caught any of them. When you consider that Russell Wilson is an extremely accurate quarterback, and currently leads the NFL with a 72.9% completion percentage, eventually Metcalf is going to start snagging those crucial catches inside the 20. Metcalf also leads this offense with 374 air yards and has a 16.3 yard aDOT (average depth of target). On 21 deep ball passes (20+ yards), Wilson has a completion percentage of 52.4% -- fourth best in the NFL. So, not only is Seattle really trying to get Metcalf involved as a redzone weapon, he is their primary deep threat. The match-up with Rams CB Marcus Peters (13th ranked CB) is not a great one but Metcalf has the opportunity to completely bust open this slate. Love him as a contrarian captain’s pick.

Brandin Cooks | DK: $7.8k, FD: $12k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Cooks will likely be the lowest owned player from the Rams wide receiver trio. It makes sense considering Kupp (27% target share) has been one of the steadiest DFS investments this year and Woods (22% target share) is coming off of a monstrous 15 target, 13 catch game with 164 yards. That leaves Brandin Cooks (18% target share) likely on the wayside. Cooks runs 58% of his routes on the left perimeter while Seattle CB Tre Flowers lines up on that side of the field 95% of the time. Out of all the Seahawks cornerbacks, Flowers has been targeted the most out of anyone -- 20% of the time on routes ran against him and is allowing almost twice as many fantasy points per route as Jamar Taylor and Shaquill Griffin. We know Cooks is the guy that stretches the field for the Rams and his 13 yard aDOT is easily the furthest on the team. Like Metcalf, Cooks can explode in the boxscore and he doesn’t need a ton of volume to do it.

Seahawks DST | DK: $4.4k, FD: N/A

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★☆☆

Unfortunately FanDuel doesn’t throw in DSTs in their single game player pools so this is only for the DraftKings players. Using a defense in your captain’s spot is risky but often viable, especially in Thursday Night Football games where games can be sloppy and scores often combine to land well below the initial over/under. The thought process behind using the Seahawks DST is pretty simple: Jared Goff struggles heavily on the road. In 2018, Goff completed 68.3% of his passes with a 20:3 TD:INT ratio and 116.7 passer rating at home. Those numbers dipped to a 60.9% completion rate, 10:9 TD:INT ration, and just an 82.7 passer rating on the road. Through four games (two home, two away) those home/away trends are still looking very apparent. On top of that, the Rams offensive line is grading out dead last in the NFL per Pro Football Focus. The Seahawks defense certainly isn’t what it was in the Legion of Boom days, but you can never discount them at home against a QB who struggled on the road.

Sunday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs (-11) | 56.5 O/U

IND: 22.8 implied points | KC: 33.8 implied points

Note: At the time of this writing, contests and salaries have not been released for either SNF or MNF. I will try to update salaries once they are released.

Well, we can all guess how this game is *probably* going to go. The Colts defense has been pretty middle of the road, allowing the 14th most FPPG along with 25.5 PPG (eighth most). Mahomes and company should have very little issues carving them up at home. The real question is how closely can the Colts hang around? The Chiefs defense has been pretty well-known to give up plenty of fantasy points (8th most FPPG, 23.5 PPG so far this season) as opponents have to constantly keep their foot on the gas to keep up. Both teams rank toward the top of the NFL in offensive tempo (KC: 6th, IND: 11th) so aside from the Chiefs being the Chiefs, the 56.5 point total makes plenty of sense.

Players to Consider:

Nyheim Hines | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

The Colts are dealing with injuries to a couple primary offensive players. TY Hilton returned to practice Thursday and is “feeling real good” so it seems he’ll be able to suit up for Sunday Night Football. Marlon Mack, however, has not practiced all week and seems significantly more questionable to play. If he sits this week, Jordan Wilkins would be the lead candidate to carry the bulk of early down work. But Nyheim Hines should benefit greatly as well as the change of pace/third down back who is more useful in the passing game. Hines’ 16 targets represents just a 12% target share but you would have to expect that to increase assuming the Colts are playing from behind most of this game. Running backs have been targeted an average of eight times per game against Kansas City this season and, overall, they’re allowing the 9th most points to the position. If Mack sits, consider Hines an intriguing and affordable captain selection.

Demarcus Robinson | DK: $7.2k, FD: $10.5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★★

You may have noticed a trend of “WR deep threats” up to this point in the newsletter. No one truly knows which receiver(s) is going to go off in this Chiefs offense week to week. If they say they do, they’re lying. But one thing Robinson has established himself as, in the absence of Tyreek Hill, is the team’s major deep threat. Robinson’s 17.9 yard aDOT is the second highest in the NFL (min. 20 targets) and Mahomes has thrown 30 deep ball passes through four weeks, which is the second most among all QBs. He’s completing 43.3% of those throws so if Robinson sees two or three deep shots, chances are he’ll come down with at least one of them for a huge play, possible touchdown. He should also see the majority of his routes ran against Colts CB Rock Ya-Sin, which by the numbers is the best WR/CB match-up to get against Indy.

Damien Williams | DK: $7k, FD: $9.5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Just like the receivers, predicting this Chiefs backfield is equally frustrating. But a running back who gets any significant volume is worth consideration in an Andy Reid offense. Damien Williams is back to a full participant in practice after missing the last two weeks with a knee injury. He’s pretty much locked into a timeshare with LeSean McCoy and now Darrell Williams is likely to see at least a few touches as well, considering how effective he has been in Damien’s absence. You’re gambling when you roster any of these RBs but Damien Williams did see 11 targets in the first two games prior to his injury and appeared to be the preferred redzone option over McCoy at the time. He’s worth a shot in some riskier builds.

Jacoby Brissett | DK: $8.4k, FD: $14.5k

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★★☆

I usually won’t mention quarterbacks, as they’re pretty obvious plays in showdown slates and are always highly owned. I do wonder just how popular Brissett will be with the majority of people looking to pay up for Mahomes (and other pieces of that offense). Fun fact: Brissett is the only NFL QB with two or more TD passes in every week this season. We know that Indy will be passing a ton and TY Hilton’s likely return can only help. The Chiefs have allowed the 10th most FPPG to QBs, including 22 rushing YPG which is a skillset that Brissett possesses. I have no issues taking him as a captain in this match-up.

Monday Night Football

Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) | 46.5 O/U

CLE: 21.5 implied points | SF: 25 implied points

From a fantasy perspective, Monday Night Football brings us perhaps the least appealing primetime game this week but an intriguing one nonetheless. The 49ers are coming off their bye week and join the Patriots and Chiefs as the only other undefeated team in the league -- though, obviously with one less game played. The Browns had a statement road win in Baltimore last week and, for now, have hushed some critics. Both defenses have been relatively solid overall as the Browns have allowed the 12th fewest FPPG, 49ers 3rd fewest. These offenses do play a bit on the slower side (SF: 18th, CLE: 25th pace of play) so the under hitting in this one wouldn’t surprise me.

Players to Consider:

Matt Breida | DK: TBD, FD: TBD

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Tevin Coleman (ankle) has the potential to return to the lineup this week but, at the time of this writing, the 49ers have not released an injury report mentioning is he is practicing or not on Thursday. Even if he suits up, I assume he digs into Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert’s workload more so than Breida’s. The 49ers have ran on 56.72% of plays this season (most in NFL), so there should be plenty of room for multiple backs to produce an impactful fantasy performance. Breida is one of the best and most underrated athletes in the league. He has evaded an average of six tackles per game and has a 40.9% successful juke rate (ranks 4th). His 2.41 yards created per attempt also ranks 3rd. The Browns are more vulnerable in the secondary but Breida is just one of those players with electrifying ability and can break long plays in very little space.

Update: I just saw a report mentioning that Coleman is indeed practicing today (Thursday). My opinion on Breida remains pretty much unchanged.

George Kittle | DK: TBD, FD: TBD

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Many may consider Kittle’s season a disappointment up to this point but I’d call that an overreaction to a three game sample size. In week one, Kittle had two touchdowns called back due to penalties. Week two was a blowout 41-17 win over the Bengals, which didn’t call for a very aggressive passing attack for much of the game. He still comfortably leads the team with a 25% target share and is fully capable of producing those 30+ fantasy point games. This is freak athlete who holds the record for single season yards by a tight end we’re talking about here. The 3-0 49ers haven’t necessarily *needed* major production from Kittle yet, but I would expect that they worked heavily during the off week to make sure he continues to play a key role in this offense. The catches, yards, and touchdowns will come.

Antonio Callaway | DK: TBD, FD: TBD

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★☆☆☆

I’m not sure if I would consider Callaway very much in the way of a potential captain selection but he is an interesting cheap play, especially if Jarvis Landry (concussion) is forced to sit. Callaway returns from a four game suspension and could step into an immediate role. Last season, Callaway held a 14% target share for Cleveland while catching 41 of 79 targets for 571 yards and 5 TDs. He saw plenty of deep looks with a 13.9 aDOT as well. Of course, Odell Beckham Jr. wasn’t a factor last year but, if anything, that should simply help open up the field more for Callaway. He’ll likely have some conditioning concerns and a bit of rust to shake off as he gets acclimated and all caught up. But he is an excellent athlete and arguably a better NFL receiver than the guys near him on the depth chart -- Rashard Higgins and Damion Ratley.

49ers DST | DK: TBD, FD: TBD

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★☆☆

Another defense suggestion? Hey, why not!? Baker Mayfield is tied for the lead in the NFL with six interceptions thrown and has been sacked 12 times (5th most). San Francisco is coming in fresh, well-rested, and will be playing in a home environment. They’ve already taken back a pair of defensive touchdowns this season and if they can apply pressure to Mayfield, then we’ve seen the sorts of mistakes he has been making recently.

That will do it for our Primetime Preview this week! Thanks for reading and best of luck!

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