By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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Week five’s primetime schedule brings us a trio of some fairly intriguing match-ups… at least more interesting than last week’s original set of TNF/SNF/MNF games. However, I gotta say, that Broncos/Jets game last Thursday ended up being much more entertaining than I originally thought it’d be. We also got that ‘bonus’ Monday night game, which was kinda nice… I guess? Considering that Chiefs/Pats game was moved to Monday solely due to coronavirus-related issues gives the NFL season a foreboding undertone moving forward. Let’s all keep our fingers crossed that these COVID-19 problems are rare and isolated incidents (wishful thinking). Anyhow, let’s get into some single-game showdown discussion!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this ***Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide*** for some important info and advice!

Thursday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) @ Chicago Bears | 44.5 O/U

TB: 24.3 implied points | CHI: 20.3 implied points

TB: 15th in offensive tempo | CHI: 20th in offensive tempo

Well, any NFL game that has anything to do with Tom Brady is obviously going to make for some worthwhile entertainment. While this may not be a sexy match-up on paper, it is a game which pits two 3-1 NFC teams against each other, so there’s plenty of importance to this one as we approach the mid-season. As far as the spread and total go, I do feel like it’s pretty spot on. This has a 24-20 sort of final score written all over it. Neither team’s offense moves the ball at an overly fast pace. Meanwhile, these are two of the better defenses to date as Tampa Bay ranks 2nd in defense DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and Chicago ranks 7th. We’ll definitely need to monitor the health status with some several key offensive players, almost exclusively on the Bucs' side of things. There’s plenty of opportunity to go around for guys further down the Tampa Bay depth chart considering guys like Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette are unlikely to suit up, among others.

Notable Offensive Injuries: WR Chris Godwin (hamstring) - Out, WR Mike Evans (ankle) - Questionable, RB Leonard Fournette (ankle) - Doubtful, WR Scotty Miller (hip/groin) - Questionable, WR Justin Watson (chest) - Out, WR Darnell Mooney (shoulder) - Questionable, TE OJ Howard (Achilles) - IR

Lineup Construction: The Vegas line suggests either an even 3-3 build or 4-2 build (TB-CHI) to be the preferred routes to take and I’d agree, while slightly leaning toward the latter option. Considering the amount of injuries to key TB players, this feels like a showdown match-up that will end up having a sizable amount of dead salary left on the table in the eventual optimal lineup. Not a certainty, of course, but a good possibility.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: QB Tom Brady, QB Nick Foles, WR Allen Robinson II, WR Mike Evans (if active), WR Scotty Miller (if active), RB Ronald Jones II, RB David Montgomery

WR Tyler Johnson | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

With Chris Godwin and Justin Watson both out this week, Tyler Johnson should see the field quite a bit (likely 70+% of snaps) regardless of whether or not Mike Evans and Scotty Miller suit up (I assume both will). The reason being is simple. Johnson is a slot receiver. Justin Watson was replacing Chris Godwin as the Bucs’ primary slot WR last week and played 74% of snaps while hauling in 4-of-6 targets for 40 yards. Johnson played on 33% of snaps but didn’t register a target. That should change this week. Johnson is a rookie 5th round pick who I personally played quite a bit in CFB DFS in recent years. He was a solid and consistent receiving option in his time playing for the Minnesota Golden Gophers and was regarded as one of the best slot receivers in this year’s draft. Expectations should be kept in check, considering Johnson is just a rookie who would be buried on the depth chart without the injuries suffered by guys ahead of him. But when Tom Brady is the quarterback guiding you and throwing you passes, things are a bit easier for a young receiver.

Buccaneers DST | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

You pretty much need a defensive (or special teams) touchdown and at least a handful of sacks + a couple turnovers for a defense to be the optimal captain selection. That kind of DST performance is, of course, a major rarity. But with the overall ineptitude of this Bears offense, combined with the general all-around effectiveness of the Bucs defense both against the pass and the run, they should fall well within general non-captain roster consideration. Aside from what was the epitome of a garbage time touchdown scoring drive, the Colts held the Bears to three points for essentially 58 1/2 minutes last week.

WR Darnell Mooney | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Allen Robinson obviously dominates the Chicago receiving attack, as he possesses a 27% target share and owns 34.5% of the team’s targeted air yards. However, Mooney is a guy who is seeing decent involvement and is coming off of a nine target game last week where he caught five for 52 yards. He also played on 74% of snaps and has logged the second most snaps among Bears WRs this season. He is currently questionable with a shoulder issue but the current buzz is that he should suit up on Thursday night.

Sunday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks (-7) | 57.5 O/U

MIN: 25.3 implied points | SEA: 32.3 implied points

MIN: 17th in offensive tempo | SEA: 29th in offensive tempo

Sunday night features the match-up that currently holds the highest total of any NFL game this week and has by far the most DFS appeal out of all three week five primetime games. Operation “Let Russ Cook” is well underway as the early-season MVP candidate has already thrown for 1,285 yards on a 75.2% completion rate and a 16:2 TD:INT ratio through just four games. He’s just straight ballin’ right now and has probably been my favorite guy to watch play for years now. Also, I recommend looking up his “Mr. Unlimited” video on YouTube to laugh at how ‘endearingly corny’ the guy is. On the other side, while Kirk Cousins does see a fair share of criticism head his way, the Vikings have scored 30+ points in 3-of-4 match-ups this year. However, much of that offensive scoring credit does need to go to the run game, led by Dalvin Cook and an offensive line that ranks second in the league in adjusted line yards. It’ll be interesting to see how that offensive versus defensive match-up plays out, considering Seattle has one of the more extreme “funnel defenses” in the league (good against the run, bad against the pass). Both teams are very healthy offensively, so we should have plenty of guys to choose from that have a month’s worth of game data attached to them.

Notable Offensive Injuries: RB Carlos Hyde (shoulder) - Questionable

Lineup Construction: If you believe Seattle runs away with this one, then a 4-2/5-1 (SEA-MIN) build is likely the right approach. But I believe the Vikings offense is good enough to hang around, so I prefer a 3-3 build and hope for a back and forth shootout.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: QB Russell Wilson, QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook, RB Chris Carson, WR Tyler Lockett, WR DK Metcalf, WR Adam Thielen

WR Justin Jefferson | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

If there weren’t already so many great offensive weapons in this game, Jefferson would borderline in the “Obvious Captain Selection” territory. He’s had quite the rookie explosion after racking up 278 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks. Adam Thielen is obviously the main receiver, as he dominates this receiving corps with a 33% Target Share and 48.25 Air Yard%, but look for Jefferson (21% Target Share, 27.5% Air Yard%) to start evening those numbers out as the season progresses. The Seahawks have allowed the most fantasy points to WRs this year and in a game where the Vikings are likely to be playing from behind, Jefferson should have heavy involvement.

WR David Moore | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Moore is going to be a boom-or-bust option basically every week that both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are healthy. Moore’s 14 targets on the season represent just an 8.75% Target Share which ranks fifth on the team. However, he has made the most of his looks from the ultra accurate Russell Wilson, catching 13 of those 14 targets for 201 yards and two TDs. His role as an outside speed receiver is meant to merely compliment DK Metcalf, but he has played 44.7% of snaps this season and any viable target for Russell Wilson is worth some DFS consideration.

RB Travis Homer | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

I’d only consider Homer as a contrarian punt option if Carlos Hyde eventually gets ruled out. With Hyde on the shelf last week and Chris Carson a tad banged up, Homer did play on 27% of snaps and found his way into the endzone. However, he had an otherwise forgettable box score (four runs for five yards, one catch for three yards). In case of a Seattle blowout (along with Hyde being ruled out), Homer (and rookie Deejay Dallas) could be in line for some garbage time opportunities.

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers @ New Orleans Saints (-8) | 51 O/U

LAC: 21.5 implied points | NO: 29.5 implied points

LAC: 13th in offensive tempo | NO: 24th in offensive tempo

Week five will wrap up with a little Saints vs. Chargers action down in the Superdome. However, there is some buzz that this game could be moved to Indianapolis due to the threat of Hurricane Delta which is scheduled to make landfall in Louisiana on Friday afternoon/evening. 2020 won’t quit! Regardless of where this game is played at, we’ll see a showdown between a seasoned future HOF’er and a rookie baby-faced newcomer. Justin Herbert may be starting just his fourth career NFL game, but he has held his own against the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. The Chargers have lost each of their three games with Herbert under center by one possession each (a combined 15 points) and the young gun has shown off some really impressive arm talent along the way. Their offense did suffer a significant loss last week as the versatile RB Austin Ekeler is set to be sidelined for 4-6 weeks with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, the Saints offense may be back to full health, at least among its skill position players. Star WR Michael Thomas (ankle) is currently listed as questionable, but it’s believed that he’ll make his return to action after missing the Saints’ last three games. I’ll be interested to see how this one plays out. There is some sneaky upset potential brewing in my mind though… especially if the game location changes and the Chargers can catch Drew Brees outside of the Superdome where, even without fans, he’s more comfortable and, thus, more dangerous.

Notable Offensive Injuries: WR Michael Thomas (ankle) - Questionable, WR Mike Williams (hamstring) - Questionable, TE Jared Cook (groin) - Questionable, RB Austin Ekeler (hamstring) - Doubtful

 Lineup Construction: If this game plays away from the Superdome, I think I may throw some 4-2 (LAC-NO) lineup builds out there in case of the upset, but the safest builds for tournaments will likely be 3-3 and 4-2 (NO-LAC).

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: QB Drew Brees, QB Justin Herbert, WR Michael Thomas (if active), WR Keenan Allen, RB Alvin Kamara, RB Joshua Kelley

 RB Justin Jackson | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

This is a fair amount of speculation here, but Jackson’s skill set is more suited to fill the “Austin Ekeler role” while Josh Kelley continues to take on the “Melvin Gordon role” in relation to the Chargers’ 2019 season. With Ekeler playing just three snaps last week prior to his hamstring injury, Josh Kelley saw the field for 30 offensive snaps (57% snap rate) but Jackson was not far behind with 21 snaps (40% snap rate). The Saints do possess the fourth best rush defense (DVOA) and it may be difficult to get a whole lot going against them between the tackles. Justin Jackson will have a role regardless of how well Kelley plays. But if Jackson gets utilized more as a pass catching back, like Ekeler (along with around 10-15 rush attempts), I could see a pathway to Jackson ultimately having the better fantasy day in this particular match-up.

WR Emmanuel Sanders | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

I imagine the return of Michael Thomas would affect Tre’Quan Smith a bit more than it would Sanders but that also comes with a good bit of speculation. While Smith did catch two TDs from Drew Brees last week, Sanders has been seemingly gaining a rapport with the veteran QB and has out-targeted Smith 14-10 in the last two weeks. Thomas and Kamara eat up the majority of targets in this offense when everyone is healthy but Sanders should have a fantasy relevant role moving forward as well.

WR Jalen Guyton | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

If WR Mike Williams is forced to miss this game with his hamstring injury, Guyton steps in as the ultimate boom-or-bust de facto downfield target for the Chargers. Many people probably saw that 72-yard bomb of a touchdown that Guyton caught from Herbert against the Bucs last Sunday. With a 17.71 yard aDOT (average depth of target) so far this season, Guyton is the deep threat for a quarterback who has a big arm. Considering the Chargers are eight point ‘dogs, we could see them take a few deep shots in this one. One big play pays off Guyton’s (or Williams’) DFS salaries.

That will wrap us up for the Week 5 Primtime Preview! Be on the look out for the full main slate breakdown tomorrow. Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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