Week 6 NFL Primetime Preview | Dissecting Some Potential One-Sided Affairs

October 10, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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Welcome back for the second edition of LineStar’s NFL Primetime Preview! If you missed this newsletter last week, essentially what we’re doing here is giving a more detailed look towards the upcoming Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football games with some potential approaches to take in those single game showdown DFS slates.

Note: These Primetime Previews will almost exclusively be geared towards GPPs and finding lower owned players (and captains) that could potentially put your tournament lineup over the top!

Single game “showdown” NFL slates are becoming more and more popular. As such, sites like DraftKings and FanDuel have been rolling out a wider array of contests with larger prize pools. Many may think that in order to win an NFL showdown GPP you simply have to ‘luckbox’ your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate. Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport, you do need a bit of good fortune. But research and intelligent game theory truly makes all the difference.

So, what are some determining factors that should affect your NFL showdown lineup construction?

1) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predictive game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you really need to make your lineup tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game which will be in catch-up mode. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type low-scoring affair, then consider rostering both defenses (one perhaps in your captain/MVP slot) with a kicker while trying to find the skill position player(s) who happen to score the game’s one or two touchdowns. There are plenty of other ways that NFL games ultimately play out, but those are just a couple of basic examples.

2) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, and RB1s. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have been rising or somebody else that is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs. Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be either overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to exceed the field by rostering him in 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you’re limiting the potential upside of your lineups.

3) Choosing the Right Captain/MVP

This one is quite obvious, but the 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially GPPs. Combine the aforementioned strategies with your own thoughts and predictions to determine what approach you’re going to take with the ever valuable captain position.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

One of the better ways to ensure you have a more unique lineup is to simply not force yourself to spend the majority (or all) of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more) on the table may not feel like a ‘comfortable’ thing to do yet is often times the optimal thing to do. A good way to sort of backtest this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out perfect lineups from previous showdown slates.

Example: For last week’s SNF match-up between the Colts and Chiefs, the most optimal lineup you could create on DraftKings only used $37,700 of the available $50,000 budget. This is more of an extreme case where over $10,000 was left on the table in an optimal lineup, but that is certainly not uncommon when a game ends up being very low scoring like that match-up was!

Now that we’ve covered some strategic angles, let’s get into these games!

Thursday Night Football

New York Giants at New England Patriots (-17) | 41 O/U

NYG: 12 implied points | NE: 29 implied points

Oh boy, this is an ugly one to kick off week six in the NFL, eh? Not only is this a lopsided, ugly match-up, the weather looks like it will be equally as bad. Rain is expected to fall throughout the evening and into the night in Foxborough and winds will be 15 to 25 mph sustained with potential for 40 mph gusts. If you notice that 12 point implied total for the Giants above, well there is good reason for it. Sure, it’s the Patriots they’re dealing with, but they’re also going to be without the majority of their playmakers. Saquon Barkley (ankle), Evan Engram (knee), Sterling Shepard (concussion), and Wayne Gallman (concussion) have all been ruled out already. On the flip side, perhaps we can find some purely volume-driven value on New York’s end. The only key offensive player that has already been ruled out for New England is WR Phillip Dorsett (hamsring) but Rex Burkhead, Julian Edelman, and Josh Gordon all carry questionable tags. In terms of offensive tempo, both teams rank inside the top half of the league with the Giants being 9th and Patriots checking in 15th. The Giants defense has given up the 6th most fantasy points per game (112.7 DraftKings FPPG) while the Patriots have (easily) been the stingiest defense for allowing offensive fantasy production (56.94 DraftKings FPPG).

Update: Just saw a report saying Rex Burkhead is NOT expected to play.

Players to Consider:

James White | DK: $6.8k, FD: $11k

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★★☆

I’d expect Sony Michel (DK: $7.6k, FD: $12.5k) to be a very popular captain selection today, and rightfully so. With the implied game flow combined with the poor weather and likelihood of Rex Burkhead missing another week, it makes a ton of sense. However, James White should retain a crucial role as well. In a game with rain and high winds, some short aDOT (average depth of target) passes with a high chance of completion could be how both offenses look to move the chains. White’s 3.8 yard aDOT fits the bill and he’s seen 19 targets come his way in the last two weeks alone. His 20% target share is second on the team, behind only Julian Edelman (21%). White is also a key player inside the 20s, where his five redzone receptions (one TD) leads the team. With Burkhead and Dorsett both out of the picture, White’s role can clearly take an additional step up.

Patriots DST | DK: $6.2k, FD: N/A

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★★★

Sorry to exclude the FanDuel players on this one! To reiterate, the Giants have an implied team total of 12 points, they are missing the majority of their playmakers, and they’re playing on a short week on the road in Foxborough in poor weather conditions. How could you not slam in the Patriots defense? Surely, on DraftKings, they’ll be very popular but I do wonder how high their captain ownership will be? Maybe 10-15%? There is a legitimate possibility that this defense ends up being the highest scoring “player” in this game, so I would have no issue rolling them out in that crucial captain spot.

Cody Latimer | DK: $800, FD: $5,500

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★☆☆

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bill Belichick utilize their shutdown cornerback, Stephon Gilmore, on Golden Tate (DK: $7k, FD: $8k) for most (or all) of this game. Even though Tate plays mostly out of the slot, Gilmore is no stranger to traveling inside when he’s given shadow duties. Gilmore can completely take opposing receivers out of games, so on the Giants side, we have to look elsewhere. Darius Slayton (DK: $6k, FD: $8.5k) is an option, but Latimer is simply preferred due to lower prices. When it comes to talent and opportunity, I don’t believe there’s really all that much that separates Latimer from Slayton and, assuming Daniel Jones throws around 35 times, both could reasonably see around 10 targets.

Jakobi Meyers | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.5k

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★☆☆

Meyers is the next man up as the Pats number three receiver with Phillip Dorsett sidelined. The rookie shined in the preseason and should be involved on all three wide receiver sets. The Patriots have ran 10 and 11 personnel (3 WR, 4 WR sets) on 50% of plays this season. Both Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman carry those “questionable” tags and may not be 100% for this game, so Meyers has a legitimate opportunity to turn in a breakout performance tonight.

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-7) | 41.5 O/U

PIT: 17.3 implied points | LAC: 24.3 implied points

We could be in for another lopsided and low-scoring primetime game on Sunday night, especially if Steelers QB Mason Rudolph (concussion) is unable to suit up after taking a scary hit last week. Both of these defenses have been pretty stingy in terms of fantasy output allowed. The Steelers have allowed the 13th fewest FPPG, Chargers 9th fewest. In terms of offensive pace, Pittsburgh lands smack in the middle with the 16th fewest seconds per play ran while the Chargers are one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL, checking in at 29th in offensive tempo.

Players to Consider:

Note: Showdown prices for SNF and MNF have not been released at the time of this writing.

Diontae Johnson

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★★☆

I’ll preface this by mentioning I’d much prefer Johnson if Mason Rudolph suits up. Johnson has been a favorite target of Rudolph and, over the last three weeks, he actually leads the Steelers with 20 targets and a 22% target share. With James Washington (shoulder) already ruled out for this week, expect Diontae Johnson to play on more than 90% of snaps in a game where Pittsburgh may have to resort to a heavy passing approach early on.

Melvin Gordon III

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★★☆

The Chargers quickly found themselves in a 14 point deficit against the Broncos last week and were never really able to establish the run. As a result, Austin Ekeler played on 66% of snaps and caught a whopping 15 of 16 targets from Philip Rivers. The plan probably wasn’t to overwork Gordon in his first game back anyhow, but he still saw a respectable 16 touches which, on 64 offensive plays for the Chargers, represented a solid 25% market share. The game script should work out more in Gordon’s favor this week. While I’d still expect close to a 50/50 split between him and Ekeler, both could reasonably see around 20 touches again.

James Conner

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★★☆

This game doesn’t really feature very many sneaky plays, as both offenses run through a very limited group of players. With Jaylen Samuels set to miss significant time, Conner should take on an even heavier workload with rookie Benny Snell Jr. backing him up. This season, Conner has played on 62.2% of snaps while Samuel has played 33.8% and Snell 4.1%. Assuming Conner’s snap count rises up towards the 80-90% range, you’re obviously going to get a higher floor and ceiling from him. Much of his involvement will come from short dump offs and screens so give him an additional boost on DraftKings given the full PPR scoring.

Monday Night Football

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4) | 47 O/U

DET: 21.5 implied points | GB: 25.5 implied points

This NFC North clash is easily setting up to be the most appealing primetime game this week. The Lions enter the week fresh after their bye and will travel to Lambeau Field to face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who just notched a major road win in Jerry’s World. The major injury to monitor in this game is the availability of Davante Adams (toe) who, as of Thursday, is still not practicing. Whether he suits up or not can change the entire dynamic of this Green Bay offense. For now, I’m moving forward as if he will miss a second consecutive week. Both teams have had moderate defensive success and neither team plays overly fast or too slow, so this spread and point total appears to be fairly spot on to me.

Players to Consider:

Aaron Jones

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★★☆

This is a very obvious selection but running backs are Detroit’s weakness so, after last week, Jones demands a mention. The Lions have surrendered 29.9 DraftKings FPPG to running backs, the fifth most in the NFL. Jones is separating himself from that supposed committee and is the clear cut lead dog in this backfield. Obviously, those four touchdowns from last week are not repeatable but Jones had 26 touches out of 65 Green Bay offensive plays. That accounted for a 40% market share, which was the 6th highest among all players in week five. Jones is also proving to be more active in the passing game after seeing 15 targets in the last two weeks. This bodes well facing a Lions defense that has given up nearly 70 yards receiving per game to running backs this season.

Marvin Jones Jr.

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★★☆

Matthew Stafford’s 31 deep ball attempts (throws 20+ yards down field) ranks second in the NFL behind only Patrick Mahomes (39) and Stafford has played one fewer game. Marvin Jones Jr.’s aDOT of 15.1 yards is the longest on the team, ahead of Kenny Golladay (13.4 yards). Jones has caught a 20+ yard pass in all four games this season and just needs to break one loose to provide a surge for those who choose to roster him.

Jake Kumerow

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

This is, once again, working under the assumption that Davante Adams sits out another week. In three wide receiver sets, I would expect Detroit to use top corner Darius Slay to shadow Marquez Valdez-Scantling, while Geronimo Allison deals with a rather tough match-up with Justin Coleman out of the slot. That would leave Kumerow, who saw 68% of snaps last week (MVS - 95%, Allison - 86%), available to possibly soak up some targets from Aaron Rodgers. Kumerow only caught one pass for nine yards on two targets last week, but it was a day where Rodgers only threw for 238 yards. The Packers exploded into an early lead over the Cowboys and were just able to control the clock with Aaron Jones for virtually all four quarters.

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Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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