Week 6 Primetime Preview | Storylines Pave the Way in Primetime

October 16, 2020

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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The primetime schedule aligns a bit differently in week six after the Bills/Chiefs game needed to be rescheduled as the lead leg of a MNF doubleheader. Honestly, I’m not mad about it. Mondays can be a drag but 6+ hours of football definitely isn’t! All three of these games have some legitimate scoring potential, with each game holding a total of 51.5 points or higher.

There is also no shortage of storylines within these match-ups. Can the Niners bounce back after an embarrassing week five blowout loss to Miami or are they on their way to a last place finish in the NFC West, just a season after competing for a Super Bowl? After stalling against the Titans on Tuesday Night Football, will Josh Allen and the Bills dig in and be able to hang with the high-powered Kansas City Chiefs? And finally, how do the Cowboys adjust after losing Dak Prescott to a gruesome ankle injury? Should be a good set of primetime action so let’s get into some single game showdown discussion!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this ***Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide*** for some important info and advice!

Sunday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers | 51.5 O/U

LAR: 27.5 implied points | SF: 24.0 implied points

LAR: 29th in offensive tempo | SF: 20th in offensive tempo

After missing two weeks with an ankle injury, QB Jimmy Garoppolo clearly wasn’t ready for week five’s match-up with Miami, as he completed just 7-17 passes for 77 yards and threw a pair of picks before sitting out the second half. At the same time, he has been logging full practices this week so maybe we’d be too kind to blame that awful performance on a lingering injury. Regardless, the 49ers now sit at 2-3 and are in desperate need of a ‘W’ to make up some ground in the NFC West behind the Cardinals (3-2), Rams (4-1), and Seahawks (5-0). There hasn’t been a ton of buzz around the Rams, as Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are stealing all the headlines in that division, but they’re quietly taking care of business. They currently rank 4th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defense DVOA, with their only loss coming on the road by three points against a very good Buffalo team. The pace in this game likely isn’t going to be very uptempo and despite San Francisco’s struggles on offense (24th in offensive efficiency), they still boast a solid defense (11th in DVOA) despite some key season-ending injuries. Aside from the players on IR, both teams’ projected offensive starters are pretty healthy heading into this Sunday night tilt.

Notable offensive injuries: RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (calf) - questionable

Lineup Construction: An even 3-3 build seems to be the safest here, especially with both teams having fairly muddled backfields, however I could really see the Rams winning by 10+ points as well, so a 4-2 (LAR-SF) build may end up being the optimal approach.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: QB Jared Goff, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Raheem Mostert, TE George Kittle, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Robert Woods

WR Brandon Aiyuk | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Highlighting Aiyuk is a result of mixing predictive opportunity, gamescript, and WR/CB match-up. The Rams have used their stud CB Jalen Ramsey all over the field this season and there is some buzz that he may even be tasked with covering TE George Kittle for a good portion of this game. If Aiyuk is able to see more routes against Troy Hill (Rams lowest graded starting CB) with Deebo Samuel drawing more attention from Darious WIlliams, and Ramsey if he isn’t on Kittle, then we could see another great outing for the 49ers rookie receiver -- especially if the 49ers are playing from behind and forced to pass more. Aiyuk’s snap count has increased each week this season going from 0% in week one followed by snap rates of 72%, 73%, 88%, and all the way up to 97% last week. You can’t contribute if you’re not on the field and Aiyuk has been on the field a lot lately.

RB Jerick McKinnon | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

A blowout gamescript and the return of Raheem Mostert helped result in a very quiet day from McKinnon last Sunday. He should still have a notable role behind Mostert this week and he’ll get an obvious boost in snaps if Jeff Wilson Jr. is forced to sit out with that calf injury. McKinnon ranks 7th in the NFL in “Rushing Yards Over Expected per Attempt” (per NextGen Stats) and has shown some explosiveness in the passing game as well. If he can find a way to garner 10-15 touches he can easily turn that into a ton of production. He may need Wilson Jr. to miss this game to have a clear pathway to that workload, however.

RB Cam Akers | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Figuring out this Rams backfield is a major headache and there is no real way to know how the split between Darrell Henderson Jr., Malcolm Brown, and Cam Akers will truly shake out. However, in the Rams week five match-up against Washington, Henderson averaged just 2.5 YPC, Brown 3.8 YPC, and Akers 6.8 YPC. Akers was clearly the most efficient back on a YPC basis, though that rushing average was obviously aided by a 46-yard run. Still, he touched the ball on nine of his 13 snaps so it would seem the Rams definitely want to get the ball in their second round rookie’s hands when he is on the field. Henderson did find the endzone twice last week and has easily been the most fantasy relevant guy in this backfield, but we also need to remember that Akers missed weeks three and four after sustaining a rib injury in week two. It’s a tough match-up but Akers may snag a dozen touches or so and could be a sneaky GPP pivot off of Henderson.

Monday Night Football - Game One

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) @ Buffalo Bills | 57.5 O/U

KC: 31.0 implied points | BUF: 26.5 implied points

KC: 12th in offensive tempo | BUF: 26th in offensive tempo

One of the major non-coronavirus-related stories in the NFL this week involved the acquisition the Chiefs made when they signed Le’Veon Bell after the Jets released him earlier in the week. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, Bell will not be eligible to play this week so that acquisition will have no bearing on this game… though you have to imagine rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be highly motivated to make his touches really count, as he’ll be competing for work against Bell beginning next week. Both of these teams lost their undefeated status in week five so motivation could be at a season-high for these guys on Monday. By this point in the season, I believe we’re all pretty familiar with what these teams are capable of. They are both led by ultra-dynamic QBs and it is no surprise that this game holds the highest total in the NFL this week (possibly the season, up to this point?).

Notable Offensive Injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (hamstring) - doubtful, WR John Brown (knee) - questionable, TE Dawson Knox (calf) - questionable

Lineup Construction: 4-2 (KC-BUF) and 3-3 builds easily make the most sense. If you want to be contrarian, the 4-2 (BUF-KC) build will be fairly uncommon. I don’t think we’ll see a blowout here, but if there is one there are probably multiple players on either side that would still have a strong fantasy stat line, so 5-1 builds aren’t really in consideration for me.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: QB Patrick Mahomes, QB Josh Allen, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB Devin Singletary, TE Travis Kelce, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Stefon Diggs

WR Mecole Hardman | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

This depends on the status of Sammy Watkins, but all indications point toward him sitting out this week. When Watkins is healthy, he plays about 80% of snaps. Since he is likely out on Monday, Hardman is the top candidate to soak up the majority of those snaps. Hardman was on the field for 69% of snaps in week five following the Watkins injury (after 26 snaps, 36% snap rate). To state the obvious, any receiver who shares the field with Patrick Mahomes for the majority of plays is extremely fantasy viable. The Bills are obviously going to be more focused on stopping Tyreek and Kelce through the air and CEH on the ground, so Hardman could see some favorable coverage.

WR Cole Beasley | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Beasley is the epitome of a player who possesses “not-too-exciting PPR consistency.” He would probably need a Stefon Diggs injury to really be a worthwhile captain selection, but he is obviously rosterable as a standard FLEX play in showdown lineups. Beasley’s 17% TGT% is second on the team behind Diggs (24.5%) and he has garnered at least six targets in 4-of-5 weeks while scoring no less than 9.8 PPR points in a game all season.

TE Tyler Kroft | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

This is a pure touchdown dependent punt play but right now TE Dawson Knox hasn’t practiced this week due to a calf injury. If he misses the game on Monday, Kroft could find his way to a handful of meaningful targets… particularly in the redzone. The snap share at tight end for the Bills this season breaks down as followed: Kroft 39.1%, Knox 38.5%… so a fairly even split. Knox has seen three targets every week he has been healthy but when Knox was forced to miss week three with a concussion, Kroft caught 4-of-5 targets for 24 yards and two touchdowns while playing 71% of snaps. So, again, he’ll be very touchdown dependent, but if Knox doesn’t suit up the Kroft could be one of those cheap FLEX-worthy plays that allows you to fit in a stud captain with ease alongside several other high ceiling players.

Monday Night Football - Game Two

Arizona Cardinals (-1) @ Dallas Cowboys | 55 O/U

ARI: 28.3 implied points | DAL: 27.3 implied points

ARI: 5th in offensive tempo | DAL: 1st in offensive tempo

While no team ever wants their star QB to go down, Dallas is fortunate enough to have one of the best backup situations with seasoned veteran starter Andy Dalton looking to take the reigns of the offense. The Cowboys have been the fastest paced offense in the league this year, but we can likely expect that to change as they look to work more through Zeke Elliot and the run game. Of course, prior to Dak’s injury, the main storyline with this Cowboys team was the play of their terrible, horrible, no good, very bad defense which has allowed a league-worst 36 PPG. Arizona can be an exciting offense to watch at times behind the electric, athletic play of Kyler Murray but up to this point they have rated out as just the 20th best offense in terms of efficiency. We’ll see how much they can capitalize on this porous Dallas defense. Meanwhile, Dalton and the ‘Boys will have a decent chance to show what kind of offensive success they can have against Arizona (20th in DVOA) in the post-Dak 2020 era. As far as injuries go for each team’s projected week six offensive starters, both squads are pretty healthy heading into this one.

Notable Offensive Injuries: QB Dak Prescott (ankle) - IR

Lineup Construction: This game is basically a pick ‘em with the one point spread favoring the Cardinals. That would make the standard 3-3 even build the most sensible option. But even with Dalton at the helm, the Cowboys have more viable fantasy assets, so I wouldn’t be against rolling out some 4-2 (DAL-ARI) builds either.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: QB Kyler Murray, QB Andy Dalton, RB Zeke Elliot, WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Amari Cooper, WR CeeDee Lamb

WR Michael Gallup | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

No one can say with certainty which one of these receivers is going to be “the guy” for Andy Dalton, but in the time he was in at quarterback last week he hooked up with Gallup for gains of 19 and 38 yards. Gallup was the odd man out of an extremely talented receiving trio, as Dak Prescott favored Amari Cooper and rookie CeeDee Lamb through the first month of the season. With Lamb primarily utilized out of the slot and Cooper likely to see some shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson, Gallup should see some favorable coverage against Dre Kirkpatrick out on the perimeter where Gallup aligns on 97% of his routes.

RB Chase Edmonds | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

As someone who has Kenyan Drake on his season long fantasy roster and has been duped by him in DFS on multiple occasions this season, I just don’t know how Edmonds doesn’t begin to make this backfield a more even split (or just takes over the lead role outright). Drake has played 67.1% of snaps this season, as opposed to 36.8% for Edmonds. Yet Edmonds is averaging more FPPG than Drake and doing much more with his opportunities. Drake has struggled his way to a 3.7 YPA average on the ground while catching just six catches for 22 yards (3.7 YPC). Edmonds: 5.0 YPA, 18 receptions for 129 yards (7.2 YPC). It’s pretty clear that Edmonds deserves more touches and it is possible we see that come to fruition on Monday night.

WR Christian Kirk | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Everyone knows all about the struggles of the Dallas secondary and DeAndre Hopkins is absolutely going to feast in this match-up, but he can’t be the only one catching passes. Kirk is an ultra boom-or-bust option for as long as he shares the field with Hopkins, but he is coming off of a week five game against the Jets where he saw a season high in targets (7), receptions (5), and yards (78). He is the go-to downfield threat whose 15.7 yard aDOT (average depth of target) ranks as the 8th highest among all NFL wide receivers who have at least 20 targets. Dallas has allowed a league-high nine TDs to WRs and it’ll take just one or two big plays for Kirk to bring in some strong DFS value.

That will wrap us up for the Week 6 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate break down linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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