Week 7 NFL Primetime Preview | Contenders or Pretenders?

October 17, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

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Welcome back for the third edition of LineStar’s NFL Primetime Preview! If you missed this newsletter the last couple weeks, essentially what we’re doing here is giving a more detailed look towards the upcoming Thursday, Sunday, and Monday Night Football games with some potential approaches to take in those single game showdown DFS slates.

Note: These Primetime Previews will almost exclusively be geared towards GPPs and finding less obvious, lower owned players (and captains) that could potentially put your tournament lineup over the top!

Single game “showdown” NFL slates are becoming more and more popular. As such, sites like DraftKings and FanDuel have been rolling out a wider array of contests with larger prize pools. Many may think that in order to win an NFL showdown GPP you simply have to ‘luckbox’ your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate. Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport, you do need a bit of good fortune. But research and intelligent game theory truly makes all the difference.

So, what are some determining factors that should affect your NFL showdown lineup construction?

1) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predictive game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you really need to make your lineup tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game which will be in catch-up mode. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type low-scoring affair, then consider rostering both defenses (one perhaps in your captain/MVP slot) with a kicker while trying to find the skill position player(s) who happen to score the game’s one or two touchdowns. There are plenty of other ways that NFL games ultimately play out, but those are just a couple of basic examples.

2) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, and RB1s. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have been rising or somebody else that is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs. Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be either overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to exceed the field by rostering him in 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you’re limiting the potential upside of your lineups.

3) Choosing the Right Captain/MVP

This one is quite obvious, but the 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially GPPs. Combine the aforementioned strategies with your own thoughts and predictions to determine what approach you’re going to take with the ever valuable captain position.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

One of the better ways to ensure you have a more unique lineup is to simply not force yourself to spend the majority (or all) of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more) on the table may not feel like a ‘comfortable’ thing to do yet is often times the optimal thing to do. A good way to sort of backtest this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out perfect lineups from previous showdown slates.

Example: For last week’s MNF match-up between the Packers and Lionss, the most optimal lineup you could create on DraftKings only used $41,200 of the available $50,000 budget. This is more of an extreme case where nearly $10,000 was left on the table in an optimal lineup, but that is certainly not uncommon!

Now that we’ve covered some strategic angles, let’s get into these games!

Thursday Night Football

Kansas City (-3) at Denver Broncos | 49.5 O/U

KC: 26.3 implied points | DEN: 23.3 implied points

KC Off. Pace Rank: 5th | DEN Off. Pace Rank: 11th

KC PPG Allowed: 24.0 | DEN PPG Allowed: 17.7

This is a more intriguing match-up than it may seem to be on the surface. How will the Chiefs respond on a short week after dropping their last two games? Is this Denver defense actually legitimate or was last week’s shutout win simply a byproduct of facing a completely inept Titans offense? Regardless of how you see this one going down, Vegas is not taking the Broncos lightly, as they’re leaving Denver as just three point underdogs. That spread would have probably shocked us all if we saw it a couple weeks ago when the Chiefs were 4-0 and the Broncos were 0-4. Only the Patriots, 49ers, and Bills have given up fewer FPPG than the Broncos defense has. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s defense has been quite generous, allowing the 10th most FPPG in the NFL. This could be a bit of a fast paced game, as both teams rank inside the top 11 in offensive tempo. While I never feel great about the over hitting in Thursday Night Football games, I do believe we’ll see some fairly high individual player fantasy scores with both teams seeing an above average amount of drives.

Players to Consider:

Royce Freeman | DK: $6k, FD: $8k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Freeman and Phillip Lindsay are caught up in a near 50/50 timeshare with both backs seeing right around 50% of snaps. Lindsay is likely going to be the more appealing option in most people’s eyes, and he is certainly well in play, but Freeman feels much more intriguing due to the decreased salaries. He simply hasn’t fallen on the positive side of touchdown variance as he still searches for his first score of the season. The good news is Kansas City allows the sixth most FPPG to opposing RBs. Both Freeman and Lindsay have near identical numbers in the passing game as well. Both backs have 26 targets on the season and for 145 yards (Freeman) and 147 yards (Lindsay). Lindsay does seem to be the preferred redzone back and gets used more on the goal line but I have to imagine that sooner or later, Freeman will find the endzone one way or another. Tonight may be the night.

Demarcus Robinson | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

No one is going to be encouraged by Robinson’s goose egg from last week and it really is difficult to tell which receivers are going to go off in this Chiefs offense in any given week, especially with Tyreek Hill back in the mix. Last week, Robinson actually had the highest snap count (86%) of any Chiefs WR and even though he didn’t catch any of his four targets, his 18.5 yard aDOT (average depth of target) surpassed even Tyreek Hill’s 17.1 yard aDOT. It’s feast or famine with this guy but on single game slates, sometimes you have to take a risk on a guy who can bust the slate wide open on a single play.

Brandon McManus | DK: $3.6k, FD: $9k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

I usually reserve kickers for showdown cash games, but as we saw Monday night with Matt Prater (21 fantasy points!) sometimes they’re just the way to go. McManus is a perfect 6-for-6 on field goal attempts at home this year and has a big leg capable of nailing those 50+ yarders. If the Chiefs end up being more of a “bend but don’t break” defense tonight, expect plenty of stalled drives to occur well within McManus’ range.

Sunday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-3) | 49 O/U

PHI: 23 implied points | DAL: 26 implied points

PHI Off. Pace Rank: 13th | DAL Off. Pace Rank: 7th

PHI PPG Allowed: 24.8 | DAL PPG Allowed: 19.0

This is probably the most intriguing primetime game of the week, which pins two rival NFC East teams against one another. The match-up has a very “prove it” sort of feel to it, as both teams sit at 3-3 and have yet to really establish an identity. After losing to the Jets last week, the Cowboys may be in full on panic mode if they drop a fourth game in a row. Their only wins have come against the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins so… how good is this team, really? The Eagles have a quality win on the road at Lambeau Field against Green Bay but, other than that, their resume looks equally as bleak. I’m pretty excited to see how this shakes out.

Players to Consider:

Note: Showdown/single game salaries for SNF and MNF have not yet been released at the time of this writing.

Michael Gallup

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★★

If you want to attack this Philly defense, you absolutely aim to do it through the air. The Eagles allow the 4th fewest FPPG to running backs but the MOST FPPG to wide receivers. This secondary is just simply beat up and is rolling out a ragtag group of defensive backs. Gallup actually sees the most targets per game (9.0) on the team but has only scored one touchdown, compared to Amari Cooper’s five. He did have to miss a couple games but eventually all of those targets will lead to some scores. Gallup won’t be low owned by any means, especially if Cooper is forced to miss week seven with a quad/ankle injury he sustained early against the Jets last week. But Gallup is easily the biggest game breaking threat on this Dallas roster aside from Amari, so he should be heavily considered in the captain/MVP slot. He's currently listed as Questionable - keep an eye on his status.

Miles Sanders

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

We have another running back timeshare to deal with in the Philadelphia backfield but what I like about Sanders is his proficiency in the receiving game. Sanders has 219 yards on 13 catches this season (16.8 YPC) and is even being targeted a bit downfield with an 8.2 yard aDOT -- which is extremely high for a running back. The Cowboys allow nearly seven receptions per game to RBs, so with Jordan Howard only having six catches on the season, the more likely candidate to exploit the Dallas defense out of the backfield would be Sanders.

Zach Ertz

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Ertz has yet to really post a breakout game this season, and his targets are down a bit this season, but he’s still seeing 9.0 targets/game and Dallas has been pretty inefficient against opposing TEs, allowing the 9th most FPPG to the position. Some may also remember Ertz’s insane 14 catch, 145 yard, two touchdown game against the Cowboys in week 10 last season on Sunday Night Football. With that sort of upside, Ertz has to fall into captain consideration.

Monday Night Football

New England Patriots (-9.5) at New York Jets | 44 O/U

NE: 26.8 implied points | NYJ: 17.3 implied points

NE Off. Pace Rank: 17th | NYJ Off. Pace Rank: 32nd

NE PPG Allowed: 8.0 | NYJ PPG Allowed: 24.6

Oh boy, another ugly Patriots primetime match-up to look forward to! But hell, maybe the Jets can put up a respectable fight after coming off the upset against Dallas. The Jets’ offensive prowess is quite obviously night and day with Sam Darnold at quarterback and they can actually throw further than five yards down the field! But this damn Patriots defense has just been absolutely unreal. They’re allowing just 56.4 DraftKings FPPG to ALL positions combined. Ridiculous! Whether they can keep that up or not remains to be seen. On the offensive side for New England, you would have to admit that they don’t appear to be completely in sync at the moment. Yes, it’s hard to criticize a 6-0 team, but Tom Brady and his receivers simply have not appeared to be dialed in just yet.

Players to Consider:

Phillip Dorsett II

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★★☆

Dorsett is dealing with a hamstring injury that has sidelined him for the past two games but he is practicing on a limited basis as of Thursday, so I feel like he has a strong shot to suit up. Josh Gordon (knee, ankle) appears to be a bit less likely to play on Monday, as he has yet to practice at all this week. That would leave the door open for a huge potential game for Dorsett. With Julian Edelman in the slot, Dorsett would be the primary outside target and line up against either Darryl Roberts or Trumaine Johnson. Both cornerbacks have been targeted on over 23% of routes ran against them.

Jamison Crowder

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★☆☆

I’d fully expect Stephon Gilmore to shadow Robby Anderson for most/all of this game. If there’s one thing you don’t really want to do, it’s play receivers against the blanket of Gilmore’s coverage. Crowder's match-up with slot corner Jonathan Jones is no cakewalk either, but in two games with Darnold this season (week one, week six), Crowder has seen 26 targets come his way, resulting in 20 catches for 197 yards. I would imagine that this will be another game where passes get funneled in Crowder’s direction, especially if the Jets fall behind early.

Patriots DST

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★★☆

Okay, I feel like we have to be pushing our luck with the Pats D because they just can’t continue to score all of these fantasy points, can they? DST touchdowns are extremely fluky and unpredictable, but New England keeps scoring them. It’d almost seem foolish not to have at least some sort of exposure to them in DraftKings showdowns (by the way, FanDuel really needs to add DSTs to the single game player pools!). Last Thursday against the Giants, the Pats D was the highest fantasy scoring “player” in that game. With the Pats a bit banged up and the Jets only possessing a 17.3 implied total, it’s completely reasonable to suspect that this defense tops the fantasy scoring charts again.

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Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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