Week 7 Primetime Preview | Who Wants to Win the NFC (L)East?

October 21, 2020

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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A normal primetime schedule returns in week seven but it will bring us a trio of pretty ‘meh’ match-ups. Still, if football is being played, I’m tuning in and also trying to win some dough in the process through some single game showdown DFS contests. Yeah, a lot of us have a football addiction but this is a judgement free zone, right? Let’s get into it!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this ***Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide*** for some important info and advice!

Thursday Night Football

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) | 45 O/U

NYG implied points: 20.3 | PHI implied points: 24.8

NYG offensive tempo: 18th | PHI offensive tempo: 5th

Man, I mean no disrespect to fans of any teams in the NFC East but… what a terrible division. The Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, and Footballs have a .229 combined win percentage this season. Mathematically, a team could win this division with four total wins in the regular season. Incredible. But getting into the match-up, both teams possess slightly below average defenses per DVOA (NYG - 17th, PHI - 19th) and this will be a ‘pace up’ spot for the Giants which could yield them some extra opportunities on offense. Injury impacts loom considerably, especially for the offensively riddled Eagles who will be without RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz. Despite the relatively ugly match-up, 59% of the public is currently betting on the over to hit in this game (per actionnetwork.com). Maybe we get a sneaky entertaining game here but I won’t get my hopes up.

Notable Offensive Injuries: RB Miles Sanders (knee) - Out, TE Zach Ertz (ankle) - Out, WR Sterling Shepard (toe) - IR (but could return Thursday).

Lineup Construction: If you’re not going with an even 3-3 build, a 4-2 (PHI-NYG) would seem to be favorable. Despite the Eagles having some significant injuries, they just seem to give more players opportunities and have more DFS-viable options, in my opinion. The Giants have also scored 20 points or less in 5-of-6 games this season.

Players To Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: QB Carson Wentz, QB Daniel Jones, RB Devonta Freeman, RB Boston Scott

TE Richard Rodgers | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

We know that historically Wentz has loved throwing to his tight ends. Now that Ertz is out (and Dallas Goedert still on IR), we could likely see Rodgers play upwards of 90% of snaps on Thursday night and run a ton of routes. Even with Ertz playing 67% of snaps in week six, Rodgers was still on the field 60% of the time. TE Jason Croom played one snap for the Eagles last week and made the most of it by bringing in a three yard touchdown. If that TD went to Rodgers, he’d probably be a lot more popular in DFS lineups on Thursday, so perhaps he’ll fly somewhat under the radar. The Giants defense has actually held TEs in check this season (6th fewest DKFP allowed per game to the position), but if the volume is there for Rodgers, I’ll have some shares.

WR Travis Fulgham | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

It’s hard to ignore Fulgham’s volume lately after he has seen 23 targets head his way over the last two weeks. That represents an elite 31% target share in that span. He has caught 16 of those 23 targets for 227 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Even with Desean Jackson designated to return on Thursday, DJax should likely retain his role as a deep threat. Fulgham’s 10.61 yard aDOT (average depth of target) shows that Wentz has been looking for him more on short/intermediate routes.

WR Golden Tate | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

The Giants top WR Darius Slayton should likely see shadow coverage from the Eagles top corner, Darius Slay, who has kept several top WRs in check in several games this season. May the best ‘Slay’ win. Another Giants receiver may need to step up if the Giants hope to stay competitive in this game. If Sterling Shepard is active, I may be a bit more interested in him over Tate. But for now, Tate is the healthy option with no injury designation going into Thursday. The Eagles have also given up the 8th most FPPG to slot WRs, which is where Tate has run 82% of his routes. We can ignore Tate’s one catch/one target game from last week and view it as an outlier (Washington actually covers the slot pretty well).

Sunday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders | 53 O/U

TB: 28.0 implied points | LV: 25.0 implied points

TB: 16th in offensive tempo | LV: 24th in offensive tempo

In my eyes, this is definitely the most intriguing primetime match-up this week. While neither team moves the ball at an incredibly fast pace, both offenses have been quite efficient this season. The Raiders rank 6th in offensive efficiency immediately followed by the Brady-led Bucs at 7th. The defenses are more of a different story. The Bucs rate out first overall in defensive DVOA while the Raiders are near dead last at 31st. Tampa Bay is coming off of one of the bigger statement games of the year as they held the formerly undefeated Packers to just ten points in week six, while putting up 38 points of their own. The Raiders are not far removed from their own statement game, after knocking off the Chiefs in week five and are now coming in fresh off of their week six bye. Nearly all of the current projected offensive starters are heading into this game healthy and I believe we’ll see an entertaining game here.

Notable Offensive Injuries: RB Leonard Fournette (ankle) - Questionable, TE Rob Gronkowski (shoulder) - Questionable

Lineup Construction: Both offenses are averaging about 30 PPG and with just a three point spread, an even 3-3 build should be the safest bet. I could honestly see either team winning this game by a touchdown or more but I doubt we’ll see a blowout, so 4-2 builds are well in play for both sides.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: QB Tom Brady, QB Derek Carr, RB Josh Jacobs, RB Ronald Jones II, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin, TE Darren Waller

TE Rob Gronkowski | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Gronk would probably need a multi-touchdown game to end up being the optimal captain play, but it isn’t like he hasn’t done that a time or two in his illustrious career. He has seen six or more targets in three of the last four games and has broken off long gains of 23+ yards each of the last three weeks. The Raiders haven’t faced a tough gauntlet of tight ends this season, up until their last game in week five when they gave up eight catches on 12 targets for 108 yards and a TD to Travis Kelce. Now, clearly Gronk isn’t on the same level as Kelce at this point in their careers, but it is nice to know that the Raiders can be beaten by big tight end targets. He did pop up on the injury report with a shoulder issue and sat out of practice, but it isn’t expected to be an injury that keeps him out on Sunday.

WR Henry Ruggs II | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

We all saw the sort of game-breaking ability that Ruggs possesses when he caught a 72-yard bomb over the middle against Kansas City a couple weeks ago. For now, he is going to be boom-or-bust essentially every week until he stays healthy and sees more volume. But his 21.55 yard aDOT and team leading 37.7% air yard% is going to make him an appealing play week-in and week-out.

Buccaneers DST | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

You should rarely roster DSTs or kickers at captain (in GPPs) but the Bucs defense is 100% viable as a regular FLEX play this Sunday in DraftKings showdown contests. They have had three weeks where they have racked up at least five sacks and 14.0+ DKFP. The Raiders do have a very solid O-Line that has only allowed eight sacks, and Derek Carr has thrown just one interception this year, but this Tampa Bay defense just embarrassed a red hot Packers' offense last week, so they can’t be ruled out of consideration.

Monday Night Football

Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams Rams (-5.5) | 45 O/U

CHI: 19.8 implied points | LAR: 25.3 implied points

CHI: 17th in offensive tempo | LAR: 22nd in offensive tempo

The Bears may be 5-1 and the Rams 4-2, but I just have a hard time getting excited for this game. Who knows though, maybe this will turn into a good match-up to wrap up week seven. The Rams have somewhat quietly been a very efficient offense over the entirety of this season, as they rank 5th in offensive efficiency. However, the Bears defense checks in at 5th in defensive efficiency, so this will be a strength-on-strength O vs. D match-up. On the flip-side, the Bears have the 26th most efficient offense going against the Rams 13th most efficient defense. Currently, 60% of the public is betting on the under (per actionnetwork.com) and, as of now, that’s where I’d be leaning as well -- especially when you factor in that both offenses move the ball at a slower-than-average pace. Aside from players on IR, both offenses do come into this week at essentially full health.

Notable Offensive Injuries: None

Lineup Construction: I slightly favor a 4-2 (LAR-CHI) build over the even 3-3 split. Chicago has a pretty narrow target/touch tree so my overall player pool would simply have more Rams players included.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: QB Jared Goff, QB Nick Foles, RB David Montgomery, RB Darrell Henderson Jr., WR Allen Robinson II, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Robert Woods

TE Jimmy Graham | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

The Rams possess a very stingy secondary that has given up the second-fewest FPPG to WRs this season. This could open up targets to be funneled in the direction of Jimmy Graham, who has seen solid volume since Nick Foles took over at QB. Graham is averaging 7.0 tgt/gm over the last four weeks and has found the endzone three times in that span. The Rams have been a bit more vulnerable to the TE position, allowing the 12th most FPPG. I don’t *love* the idea of putting a 33-year-old Jimmy Graham into my lineups, but if we’re looking for a viable Bears pass catcher, he could end up being an optimal play.

WR Josh Reynolds | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Reynolds is typically the odd man out behind Kupp and Woods, but he has garnered at least four targets in each of the last four games and found the endzone last week. While Goff and Reynolds haven’t hooked up for a ton of production this season, Reynolds is the main deep threat in this offense with a 13.1 yard aDOT. Compare that to Robert Woods (8.46 aDOT) and Cooper Kupp (7.58 aDOT). The Bears, of course, have a solid defense and allow the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs. However, if there has been a weak point in the secondary, it has been CB Jaylon Johnson who aligns against the left wide receiver 97% of the time. The Bears have given up the 15th most FPPG to perimeter receivers on the left side of the field, where Reynolds runs 52% of his routes.

TE Gerald Everett | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

If we’re really throwing a dart, you could consider Everett who has racked up 127 yards receiving in the last two weeks. TE Tyler Higbee is going to see more snaps than Everett, but the latter has been on the field for about half of the offensive snaps the last two weeks and has seen four targets in each game. Aside from a fluky three touchdown game in week two against Philadelphia, Higbee has really underwhelmed this season as a pass catcher. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rams look to get Everett more and more involved in the passing game, especially against a Bears defense that is so tough against wide receivers.

That will wrap us up for the Week 7 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate break down linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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