Week 8 NFL Primetime Preview | Dressing Up Some Lopsided Match-Ups

October 23, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

Welcome to the Week 8 LineStar Primetime Preview! Here we'll be getting a look ahead at the week's primetime games with a focus on the single game slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. On top of single game strategies and tips, you'll find game previews and some less obvious players to consider for your lineups! This newsletter is meant to be GPP oriented, so you'll rarely see any QBs, WR1s, or RB1s mentioned as those are more obvious players to roster.

Be sure to check out all the LineStar NFL content:

🔊  PreSnap Podcast every Monday, Thursday & Friday!

👇 Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts! 👇

Single game “showdown” NFL slates are becoming more and more popular. As such, sites like DraftKings and FanDuel have been rolling out a wider array of contests with larger prize pools. Many may think that in order to win an NFL showdown GPP you simply have to ‘luckbox’ your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate. Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport, you do need a bit of good fortune. But research and intelligent game theory truly makes all the difference.

So, what are some determining factors that should affect your NFL showdown lineup construction?

1) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predictive game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you really need to make your lineup tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game which will be in catch-up mode. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type low-scoring affair, then consider rostering both defenses (one perhaps in your captain/MVP slot) with a kicker while trying to find the skill position player(s) who happen to score the game’s one or two touchdowns. There are plenty of other ways that NFL games ultimately play out, but those are just a couple of basic examples.

2) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, and RB1s. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have been rising or somebody else that is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs. Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be either overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to exceed the field by rostering him in 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you’re limiting the potential upside of your lineups.

3) Choosing the Right Captain/MVP

This one is quite obvious, but the 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially GPPs. Combine the aforementioned strategies with your own thoughts and predictions to determine what approach you’re going to take with the ever valuable captain position.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

One of the better ways to ensure you have a more unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more) on the table may not feel like a ‘comfortable’ thing to do, yet is often times the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back test this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous showdown slates.

Example: For last week’s SNF match-up between the Eagles and Cowboys, the most optimal lineup you could create on DraftKings only used $46,300 of the available $50,000 budget. The majority of these single game slates have had perfect lineups with $3k+ left on the table.

Now that we’ve covered some strategic angles, let’s get into these games!

Thursday Night Football

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (-16) | 42 O/U

WAS: 13.0 implied points | MIN: 29 implied points

WAS Off. Pace: 24th | MIN Off. Pace: 22nd

WAS PPG For/Against: 12.9/25.1 | MIN PPG For/Against: 27.4/17.6

Welp, out of 15 NFL games this week, two of the largest spreads of the week take place within the three primetime games. It’s a bad look for the NFL, but that’s the hand we’ve been dealt! Washington and Minnesota are two very slow-paced teams and with both teams playing on a short week, I’d lean towards the under hitting in this one, as Thursday Night Football games often do. On the Redskins side, they’ll be without Chris Thompson and Vernon Davis, while Adrian Peterson is currently listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Adam Thielen will not suit up for the Vikings, which is very significant, but the rest of their primary weapons should be full go. The most likely way this game plays out is the Vikings get a lead early and pound the ball with Dalvin Cook for much of the game. Clearly not a bold assumption there. Minnesota runs the ball on 52.8% of plays, which is the second highest rushing play percentage in the league. This absolutely feels like a game where the perfect lineup will end up with $5k+ in ‘dead’ salary. Feel free to get creative in your lineups with that in mind.

Players to Consider:

Olabisi Johnson | DK: $6.2k, FD: $10k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

I’d be pretty surprised if Dalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins, or Stefon Diggs aren’t ultimately the optimal captain/MVP selection in this game, so taking anyone else in that spot is very much a significant risk. But Adam Thielen’s absence will open up his 21% target share to go elsewhere -- Cook and Diggs won’t soak up all of those. Thielen went down last week after playing nine snaps. Johnson came in to play 52 snaps (71% snap share) and caught 4-of-8 targets for 40 yards and a score. Johnson was getting more involved in recent weeks anyhow, and had caught 9-of-9 targets in the previous three weeks. Kirk Cousins has only attempted 27 passes/game, so targets are pretty hard to come by for any non-primary receiver -- and the implied game script definitely doesn’t bode well for a heavy Minnesota passing day. But Johnson still has a solid chance to catch 5+ passes and possibly find his way into the endzone. He isn’t a burner but he is a polished route runner who can be Cousins’ go-to target on short to intermediate routes, as Johnson’s 9.2 aDOT would indicate.

Irv Smith Jr. | DK: $4.8k, FD: $7.5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

In the same vein as the Olabisi Johnson recommendation, Irv Smith Jr. should be in line for an uptick in target share as well, after catching 5-of-6 targets for 60 yards last week, while playing on 56% of snaps. If you watched this guy at Alabama, you know he was a deadly target who could bust open huge chunk yardage down the seam. Without Thielen for much of the game last week, the Vikings ran two (and three) tight end sets on 55% of plays. For reference, most teams run two tight end sets less than 30% of the time. Out of Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph, Smith is the more lethal threat and he has drawn comparisons to Jordan Reed (before all of the concussions). He should be on the field plenty and see his fair share of opportunities. Behind Cook and Diggs, I’d say Smith has the highest multi-touchdown upside in this offense.

Wendell Smallwood | DK: $1.8k, FD: $5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Surely, someone on this Redskins offense will do something noteworthy besides Terry McLaurin. While the revenge narrative for Adrian Peterson facing his former team is intriguing, currently it is unclear if he is even going to suit up. Smallwood is the better candidate to take over the Chris Thompson role anyhow. Thompson has had 38 targets this season (19% target share) to Peterson’s seven (4% target share). On a short week, I highly doubt Washington is going to turn to a hobbled AP as a full three down back. But the Redskins still clearly want to utilize a running back in the passing game (mostly out of necessity). Even if Peterson plays, Smallwood could see around 10-12 rush attempts and a handful of catches as well.

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay Packers (-4) at Kansas City Chiefs | 47.5 O/U

GB implied points: 25.8 | KC implied points: 21.8

GB Off. Pace: 28th | KC Off. Pace: 7th

GB PPG For/Against: 26.3/19.9 | KC PPG For/Against: 28.9/21.4

The obvious story line here is that there will be no Patrick Mahomes. So how differently will this Chiefs offense look? Andy Reid will still run his system, as Matt Moore is a pretty capable back-up, but the downfield aggression that we’re used to seeing from Mahomes still takes a pretty significant hit. They also may not run as fast paced as they normally would in order to give Matt Moore a bit more time to process defensive alignments and coverages and audible if he needs to. As for Green Bay… welcome back Aaron Rodgers! He put himself firmly in the MVP race after his monstrous 430 yard, six TD performance last week, which moved Green Bay’s record to 6-1. Perhaps this is the week he finally gets Davante Adams back, but Rodgers reminded us of what he is capable of even without a stud wide receiver. Besides Mahomes and Adams, the only other noteworthy offensive injury to monitor is Sammy Watkins, who continues to nurse a hamstring injury. It would’ve been great to see a Mahomes versus Rodgers primetime match-up, the football gods just don’t want to reward us with that. But this is easily the most intriguing game of the three primetime match-ups and I do believe this one stays close for the majority of the game.

Players to Consider:

Note: At the time of this writing, prices for the SNF and MNF single game slates have not been released.

Travis Kelce

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Kelce is going to carry plenty of ownership in this game, but perhaps not heavy captain ownership. Without Mahomes, if there is one beneficiary among the Kansas City receivers, my money would be on Kelce. He could be a near lock for 10+ targets in this game as Matt Moore may rely on him as more of a security blanket, because we know we’re probably not going to see as many deep shots to Tyreek Hill and Demarcus Robinson. Green Bay has also given up the 8th most FPPG to tight ends this season, so that may be a weakness for the Chiefs to exploit.

Marquez Valdez-Scantling

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

MVS capitalized heavily on his opportunities last week, catching 2-of-3 targets -- the first for a 59 yards gain, the second for an electric 74 yard touchdown. He has shown himself to be Aaron Rodgers’ primary deep threat with an aDOT of 15.1 yards and his 19.8 YPC ranks second in the league. Rodgers ranks fifth in the NFL in 20+ yard passes thrown (38) and ranks fourth with a 50% completion rate on those passes, so in terms of game breaking play-making ability, Valdes-Scantling is certainly up there. I may almost like MVS more if Davante Adams suits up. That would force Kansas City to key in on him and possibly allow more space to open up for MVS down the field. He clearly has proven that he doesn’t need a ton of volume to reward fantasy owners.

Packers DST

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Sorry to exclude the FanDuel players here with a DST recommendation! But the thought process is simple here. Yes, Matt Moore is a solid NFL backup but the talent drop-off from Patrick Mahomes in incredibly significant. If Andy Reid does allow Matt Moore to air it out, then Green Bay’s defense could easily turn in a captain-worthy performance. Moore has a career 81.2 passer rating and a 3.6% interception percentage -- which would rank as the 8th worst among QBs this season. The Packers DST is also 12th in sacks this year (18), 3rd in interceptions (8), and 10th in forced fumbles (7). Unless DraftKings prices them something ridiculous by the time showdown salaries are released, they can quite easily turn in some significant value if this game plays into Green Bay’s hands.

Monday Night Football

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5) | 43 O/U

MIA: 14.3 implied points | PIT: 28.8 implied points

MIA Off. Pace: 5th | PIT Off. Pace: 27th

MIA PPG For/Against: 10.5/35.2 | PIT PPG For/Against: 20.5/21.8

I know everyone is super excited for this potential game of the week match-up! Okay, maybe not. I can’t wait to see ESPN squirm as they try to hype up this game. But hey, there will still be DFS contests to play and some of us also have a bit of a football addiction so… sadly I’ll be one of those suckers who probably watches much of this game. I probably don’t need to get too in-depth on how I believe this game will play out. I will say, Miami is showing some life lately, scoring season-high point totals in consecutive weeks. Given, that’s only 16 points (vs. WAS) and 21 points (@ BUF) so expectations should still remain in the basement. The major news and notes here include the Steelers getting Mason Rudolph back under center while James Conner, currently questionable, expects to play. Miami, as bad as they may be, is pretty much fully healthy on the offensive side of the ball, so not much to note there. Alright, let’s grit our teeth, close our eyes, and look for some potential GPP candidates from this match-up.

Players to Consider:

DeVante Parker

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★★☆

So, let’s say Miami does hang tough and put 21+ points on the board. If that happens, it’ll likely be on the heels of 35+ passing attempts from Ryan Fitzpatrick. In Fitz’s start last week, he amassed 282 yards on 35 attempts (8.1 YPA) and targeted Parker ten times (29% target share). Parker’s 17.1 yard aDOT leads the team and his 15.8 YPC ranks 18th in the NFL. He now has a touchdown scored in three consecutive weeks, so if/when Miami gets into the redzone, anticipate Parker to be the first read on pass plays.

Diontae Johnson

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★★☆

With Mason Rudolph at quarterback in weeks two through five, Johnson has seen 24 targets (20% target share), which is just two fewer than JuJu Smith-Schuster in that time and they’ve both had the exact same number of air yards (231). I’ll like this pick more if James Washington sits out another game, but I’d still expect Johnson to play on 60+% of snaps regardless. And, as we know, Miami’s defense opens up ample fantasy opportunities for basically everyone, as they allow the most FPPG in the NFL.

Albert Wilson

GPP Captain Ranking: ★★★☆☆

Okay, this one is pretty risky after Wilson only played on 23% of snaps last week, but his match-up out of the slot against Pittsburgh’s slot corner, Mike Hilton, is very enticing. Hilton has been targeted on 24% of routes ran against him. This has led to the Steelers allowing the most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Allen Hurns and Jerian Grant have gotten their share of slot snaps, but Wilson is an extremely dangerous receiver who can take short 5-10 yard passes to the house. Perhaps now that he is two weeks removed from injury and gets a full week of practice in with Fitzpatrick at starting quarterback, his snaps and opportunities will rise.

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.

Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!