Week 8 Primetime Preview | Scary (Bad) Match-Ups Incoming?

October 29, 2020

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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Week eight in the NFL will bring us another trio of some pretty unexciting primetime featured games. However, DFS definitely helps in making these evening games a lot more interesting. Having a couple beers while watching helps the entertainment factor as well. I may need to have a full case on hand if I’m going to be watching the Cowboys offense operate on Sunday night. But let’s try to win some coin in some single game showdown contests, shall we?

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this ***Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide*** for some important info and advice!

Thursday Night Football

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers (-3) | 51.5 O/U

ATL: 24.3 implied points | CAR: 27.3 implied points

ATL: 4th in offensive tempo | CAR: 29th in offensive tempo

This is easily the most DFS friendly primetime game this week with plenty of viable fantasy plays to choose from on both sides of the ball. The major news here heading into Thursday evening will be whether or not Christian McCaffrey will be active for this game for the first time since suffering a high ankle sprain back on Sept. 20th. The Panthers will have until 4 pm ET to activate CMC today, so we’ll know in plenty of time whether or not we should adjust our DFS showdown approach. Aside from McCaffrey, all current projected offensive skill position starters are looking to be healthy heading into this game so there are really no other injuries to worry about. Both defenses allow plenty of production (ATL - 27th in DVOA, CAR - 23rd in DVOA) and this will be a significant pace up spot for the Panthers offense. Outside of showdown contests, this might also be a good week to play the Thursday-Monday slate since this is looking like one of the best fantasy match-ups of the week and also carries a close three point spread. Currently 57% of public bets are coming in on the over hitting in this game (per actionnetwork.com) and, even though TNF games tend to be lower scoring, I believe I’d lean towards the over myself. The real big question is: If the Falcons get a 4th quarter lead, how do they blow it this week? They’re getting more and more creative as the season progresses. One thing to note: weather could play a factor in this game. As you’ll see in the screenshot below, there is a good chance for rain and 10+ mph winds (with more significant gusts). Currently, I don’t believe the weather should be severe enough to kill the scoring upside in this game. We’ll see how it plays out though…

Notable Offensive Injuries: RB Christian McCaffrey (ankle) - Status TBD

Lineup Construction: With so many viable players to choose from, I think you can make a case for a 4-2 build, favoring either side. This game should play close and could be very back-and-forth so an even 3-3 build looks like a great approach as well, especially for cash games. 5-1 builds are off the table for me.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain/FLEX Selections: QB Matt Ryan, QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Mike Davis (if CMC is out), RB Christian McCaffrey (if active), RB Todd Gurley, WR Julio Jones, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Robby Anderson, WR DJ Moore

RB Brian Hill | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

All of your captain plays (and most of your flex plays) should probably come from that list above, but if you’re trying to be a little contrarian, Hill might be worth a look in some lineups. He typically plays about a third of offensive snaps and maybe we see a more run-heavy approach from Atlanta in a game that could be wet and windy. Barring a Gurley injury, Hill should still be a pretty good bet to see 5-10 touches, including a couple targets (2-3 targets in every game this season). The Panthers defense is also more susceptible to the run, as they rank 28th in run defense DVOA and allow 4.9 YPA. If Hill gets lucky with a TD, he could turn out to be an optimal salary-saving play.

Both Kickers | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

Wet and windy obviously isn’t a great recipe for promising kicking conditions so maybe tread carefully here. But if the winds hold at around 10 mph and aren’t really blowing across the field, then maybe one of these kickers ends up having a good day. We’ve seen Joey Slye hit double-digit fantasy points in 4-of-7 games and Younghoe Koo has 13+ fantasy points in 3-of-6 games (didn’t play in week four). Carolina is 2nd in the NFL with 2.9 FGA per game, Atlanta checks in at 8th with 2.4 FGA per game so both teams have offenses that tend to stall within FG range. Even in very high-scoring games inside domes, you rarely want to put a kicker in as you captain (at least in GPPs) but one (or both?) of these kickers could turn out to be a viable FLEX play.

WR Curtis Samuel | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

In his last two games, Samuel has caught 11-of-11 targets for 84 yards and a TD. Atlanta’s secondary has as many holes as a block of Swiss cheese and have given up the 2nd most FPPG to slot WRs, which is where Samuel runs about 75% of his routes. Robby Anderson and DJ Moore obviously dominate the target share in this offense but Samuel could see a handful or so of some highly catchable passes from Teddy Bridgewater and should at least be considered as an affordable FLEX play.

Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles | No Spread/Total as of 10/29

DAL: 1st in offensive tempo | PHI: 6th in offensive tempo

Yeah, baby! Another primetime NFC East match-up, let’s goooooo! /sarcasm

They really should move this game up a day to Halloween, because this could be a nightmare to watch. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the availability of Andy Dalton (concussion) as well as Miles Sanders (knee), this game doesn’t have a spread or total at the time of this writing. Dalton’s outlook doesn’t look all that great this week, so I am going to work under the assumption that he’ll be sidelined, which would mean seventh-round rookie QB Ben Dinucci gets the start. I don’t believe Sanders’ availability will have a drastic effect on the eventual spread/total but assuming Dalton sits, I’ll take a stab at the spread/total here: PHI (-8.5), 45.5 O/U. We’ll see how that stacks up with the actual Vegas total in a couple days if/when Dalton gets ruled out. Both teams move the ball at a very fast tempo so, even if we don’t see a ton of points scored, we probably get a high offensive play count in this game which translates to more opportunities for fantasy-relevant players. DFS and sports betting will be the only things that keeps me interested in this game.

Notable Offensive Injuries: QB Andy Dalton (concussion) - Questionable, RB Miles Sanders (knee) - Questionable, WR Alshon Jeffery (calf) - Questionable, Desean Jackson/Jalen Reagor/Zach Ertz/Dallas Goedert - IR

Lineup Construction: A 4-2 (PHI-DAL) build seems pretty solid this week, especially if Dalton is out, and if you’re predicting a significant blowout I wouldn’t rule out a 5-1 (PHI-DAL) build either. Still, the Eagles barely irked out a W against the Giants last week and are dealing with plenty of injuries of their own, so they’re not a lock to dominate even in an absurdly good spot against a terrible Dallas defense.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain/FLEX Selections: QB Carson Wentz, Dallas QB (meh), RB Miles Sanders (if active, otherwise switch to Boston Scott), RB Ezekiel Elliot, WR Travis Fulgham

WR CeeDee Lamb | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

The Cowboys have to go somewhere with the ball in a game they could potentially be trailing from start to finish. Eagles lockdown cornerback Darius Slay is a likely candidate to shadow Amari Cooper. In two previous match-ups with Slay, Cooper has had games of 1-4-0 and 3-38-0 (per Mike Clay). The slot provides the more exploitable position against this Eagles secondary, as they allow the 7th most FPPG to slot WRs. Lamb runs 93% of his routes out of the slot and will face Cre’Von LeBlanc who covers the slot on 93% of his coverage snaps and gets targeted on 24% of routes run against him. Prior to last week, when Lamb caught zero of five targets, the talented young rookie had posted at least five catches and 59 yards receiving in every game this season. Lamb is also tied for 2nd in the NFL with 10 receptions gaining 20+ yards. His ceiling is, of course, now limited by his QB play, but the Cowboys should still be looking to get him the ball whenever possible this week.

TE Richard Rodgers | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

With Ertz and Goedert on IR, Rodgers rarely came off the field in week seven, playing 85% of snaps and bringing in 6-of-8 targets for 85 yards. There is an outside chance Goedert comes back this week, but with Philly having a week nine bye coming up, it doesn’t seem likely -- especially in a very winnable game. That would leave Rodgers as a primary target for Carson Wentz for at least one more week in an offense that is starved for healthy pass catchers. Dallas allows the 11th most FPPG to the TE position.

Eagles DST | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

The Cowboys traveled to Washington last week to kick a field goal. They may not be able to do much more against the Eagles in Philly. The Eagles have a pretty mediocre defense which ranks 16th in DVOA but this match-up could make them look elite, for at least one week. A handful of sacks with a couple turnovers and possibly a defensive touchdown is a legit possibility against an offense that could be led by a seventh-round rookie QB.

Monday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) @ New York Giants | 46 O/U

TB: 28.5 implied points | NYG: 17.5 implied points

TB: 11th in offensive tempo | NYG: 20th in offensive tempo

Another NFC East team gets a little more more primetime exposure as the 1-6 Giants take on the 5-2 Super Bowl hopeful Buccaneers. Tom Brady is putting together a legitimate MVP-caliber season and is being backed by a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in DVOA. A blowout could be expected here as the Giants are averaging just 17.4 PPG, which ranks 31st ahead of only the New York Jets (12.1 PPG). Tampa Bay will be without one of its primary weapons, as WR Chris Godwin will be out following a surgery on his index finger but the Bucs are still pretty well-stocked up on playmakers. And unfortunately, we’ll have to wait at least another week for the newly acquired Antonio Brown to make his Bucs debut as he wraps up his eight-game suspension. Brown playing this week would have added some more actual football appeal to this game but, hey, we’ll see if the Giants can manage to make this interesting. Do note: this game is setting up to be played in cold, windy conditions.

Notable Offensive Injuries: WR Chris Godwin (finger) - Out, RB Devonta Freeman (ankle) - Questionable

Lineup Construction: 4-2 (TB-NYG) looks like the safest approach for cash and GPPs in this game. If you think the Bucs will win by 21+ points, feel free to throw some 5-1 Bucs ‘smash builds’ out there as well.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain/FLEX Selections: QB Tom Brady, QB Daniel Jones, WR Mike Evans, TE Rob Gronkowski

RB Leonard Fournette | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Predicting how this Bucs backfield will operate week-to-week will be a tough egg to crack. Fournette missed essentially three games heading into week seven and still ended up playing 56% of offensive snaps, compared to 43% for Ronald Jones. Both backs saw 14+ touches in a blowout win versus the Raiders but what stands out is the fact that Fournette was targeted seven times out of the backfield. If that trend continues, he’ll be the more appealing fantasy asset in PPR formats like DraftKings. Considering the Bucs are favored by double digits, the gamescript could set up well for both backs to see extensive work once again.

WR Sterling Shepard | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

When he’s healthy, we should probably assume Shepard, and not Darius Slayton, to be the WR1 in this Giants offense. In his first game off of IR after missing four games, Shepard caught 6-of-8 targets for 59 yards and a score against the Eagles in week seven. The catches were tied with Evan Engram for the team lead, while the yardage was the most among Giants receivers. The Bucs boast a pretty stout secondary but Shepard could be force fed upwards of ten targets in this game where they likely find themselves playing catch-up.

Buccaneers DST | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

The Bucs DST has three games this year where they have scored 14+ fantasy points. The Giants are allowing 9.3 DKFP per game to opposing DSTs this season and this will be arguably their toughest defensive test to date, with the exception of maybe the Steelers in week one. The Bucs could have a pathway to 15+ DKFP in this game, which would quite possibly make them an optimal FLEX play.

That will wrap us up for the Week 8 Primetime Preview! Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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