Week 9 NFL Primetime Preview | A Spooky Good Match-Up in Baltimore

October 30, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

Welcome to the Week 9 LineStar Primetime Preview! Here we'll be getting a look ahead at the week's primetime games with a focus on the single game slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. On top of single game strategies and tips, you'll find game previews and some less obvious players to consider for your lineups! This newsletter is meant to be GPP oriented, so you'll rarely see any QBs, WR1s, or RB1s mentioned as those are more obvious players to roster.

Be sure to check out all the LineStar NFL content:

🔊  PreSnap Podcast every Monday, Thursday & Friday!

👇 Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts! 👇

Single game “showdown” NFL slates are becoming more and more popular. As such, sites like DraftKings and FanDuel have been rolling out a wider array of contests with larger prize pools. Many may think that in order to win an NFL showdown GPP you simply have to ‘luckbox’ your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate. Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport, you do need a bit of good fortune. But research and intelligent game theory truly makes all the difference.

So, what are some determining factors that should affect your NFL showdown lineup construction?

1) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predictive game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you really need to make your lineup tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game which will be in catch-up mode. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type low-scoring affair, then consider rostering both defenses (one perhaps in your captain/MVP slot) with a kicker while trying to find the skill position player(s) who happen to score the game’s one or two touchdowns. There are plenty of other ways that NFL games ultimately play out, but those are just a couple of basic examples.

2) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, and RB1s. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have been rising or somebody else that is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs. Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be either overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to exceed the field by rostering him in 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you’re limiting the potential upside of your lineups.

3) Choosing the Right Captain/MVP

This one is quite obvious, but the 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially GPPs. Combine the aforementioned strategies with your own thoughts and predictions to determine what approach you’re going to take with the ever valuable captain position.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

One of the better ways to ensure you have a more unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more) on the table may not feel like a ‘comfortable’ thing to do, yet is often times the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back test this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous showdown slates.

Example: For week seven's SNF match-up between the Eagles and Cowboys, the most optimal lineup you could create on DraftKings only used $46,300 of the available $50,000 budget. Many of these single game slates have had perfect lineups with $3k+ left on the table.

Now that we’ve covered some strategic angles, let’s get into these games!

Thursday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers (-10) @ Arizona Cardinals | 43 O/U

SF: 26.5 implied points | ARI: 16.5 implied points

SF Off. Pace Rank: 25th | ARI Off. Pace Rank: 1st

SF PPG For/Against: 29.6/11.0 | ARI PPG For/Against: 21.2/27.9

You don’t often see a double digit road favorite in the NFL but San Francisco has made their case as the most dominant overall team in the league. They’re practicing and preaching old school football, as they lead the league running on 57.5% of offensive plays. The 49ers vaunted defense has given up the second fewest PPG and fantasy PPG. Things could get scary for Arizona quickly in this Halloween night match-up. The major injuries to monitor here lie in both backfields. Both David Johnson and Matt Brieda are questionable to suit up while Chris Edmonds has already been ruled out. There’s a chance that the newly acquired Kenyan Drake will be the primary ball carrier for the Cardinals, but it’s a bit tough to speculate considering he’s trying to pick up a new playbook on a short week.

Players to Consider:

George Kittle | DK: $9.2k, FD: $13.5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★★

Sure, Kittle will be highly popular despite the fact that San Francisco wants to run the ball as much as possible, but you cannot ignore the TE vs. Arizona match-up in any given week. The Cardinals allow the most FPPG to the tight end position and, even with the addition of Emmanuel Sanders, Kittle led all 49er receivers in week eight in both targets (7) and air yards (47). Those seven targets may not seem like a lot, but considering Jimmy Garoppolo only threw the ball 22 times, that represented a lofty 32% target share. Considering how fast Arizona plays, some extra opportunities should be given to San Francisco’s offense. Kittle hasn’t seen double-digit targets since week one, but as long as the Cardinals can hang around fairly close on the scoreboard, this is a prime opportunity for him to crack that 10+ target threshold and break through for one of his ceiling games.

Trent Sherfield | DK: $800, FD: $5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

I don’t believe you necessarily need to use your captain spot on Sherfield but he has seen many of his routes on the right side of the field, which is where this 49ers secondary has been the most forgiving. San Fran allows the 31st fewest FPPG to the left side of the field and the fewest FPPG to the slot. They’re still stout on the right side, where Richard Sherman typically lines up, but they allow the 24th most FPPG on that end. Obviously, still strong, but that has been the “weak” spot. Arizona runs more four wide receiver sets than anyone else in the league and Sherfield should find his way in on 50+% of snaps. If David Johnson sits out and the Cardinals fall behind early, we could legitimately see Arizona pass the ball on ~65% of their plays. Sherfield doesn’t need much to pay off his salaries, especially on DraftKings.

Marquise Goodwin | DK: $3.4k, FD: $6k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

We’re always trying to find lower owned GPP-centric plays in these Primetime Previews, which can be difficult when you’re dealing with a selection of just two teams. If you’re playing it safe (cash games), just take QBs, kickers, a defense, and maybe a guy like Tevin Coleman. If you’re getting risky and looking for a home run hitter, well someone like Marquise Goodwin could be your guy. He only has 16 targets on the season but is second on the team with 228 air yards (14.2 aDOT). He missed last week due to a personal matter but will be suiting up Thursday and figures to work as the No. 2 receiver behind Emmanuel Sanders. He’s the type of guy that can bust open a slate on just one or two receptions.

Sunday Night Football

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens | 45 O/U

NE: 24.3 implied points | BAL: 20.8 implied points

NE Off. Pace Rank: 20th | BAL Off. Pace Rank: 26th

NE PPG For/Against: 31.2/7.6| BAL PPG For/Against: 30.6/22.3

This is a super intriguing game from a non-fantasy perspective and is setting up to be one of the better primetime games of the season. This matchup pits the top two offenses in the NFL (on a PPG basis) against one another. But how effective will Lamar Jackson and the Ravens be against that utterly nasty New England defense? No doubt this will be New England’s toughest opponent to date, so I think this will really be a sort of measuring stick that shows us just how good that Pats D is. The only notable offensive injury to mention here is Marquise Brown, who is currently questionable with an ankle injury. He’s been practicing on a limited basis and the Ravens are coming out of a bye week. So if I had to guess, he’ll probably at least try to suit up considering the magnitude of this game.

Players to Consider:

Note: At the time of this writing, prices for the SNF and MNF single game slates have not been released.

Phillip Dorsett II

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Dorsett will likely run about a third of his routes on the right perimeter, where Baltimore has allowed the 4th most FPPG in the last four weeks. We’ll need a larger sample size to determine just how much the acquisition of Mohamed Sanu will factor into Dorsett’s snaps, but last week he still had a 93% snap rate (Sanu: 54%), so that’s a good sign moving forward. Assuming Baltimore can keep this thing close, I’d expect somewhere in the vicinity of eight targets to head Dorsett’s way.

Willie Snead IV

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Assuming Marquise Brown is a go, he will likely draw shadow coverage from Stephon Gilmore who is arguably the best corner back in the league right now. That could give a boost to Snead’s lowly 10% target share on the year. Brown and tight end Mark Andrews have seen a massive 48% of Lamar Jackson’s targets this season but passes may need to be funneled elsewhere considering how well Bill Belichick and the Patriots are at neutralizing primary opposing weapons.

James White

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

White is utilized far too much in the redzone to only have one touchdown on the year. The positive regression will come at some point… right? Baltimore allows the 8th fewest FPPG to running backs, so Sony Michel may struggle more than usual (3.3 YPC on the season). As most are aware, White isn’t a prototypical running back. He is a pass catching specialist who has seen 7.6 targets/game this season. In what could very likely be their toughest opponent of the season, expect James White to see quite a bit of usage, especially if New England falls behind on the scoreboard (gasp!).

Monday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys (-7) at New York Giants | 48 O/U

DAL implied points: 27.5 | NYG implied points: 20.5

DAL Off. Pace Rank: 6th | NYG Off. Pace Rank: 8th

DAL PPG For/Against: 27.1/17.7 | NYG PPG For/Against: 19.8/27.2

This is the primetime game that likely has the most fantasy appeal on the week. In a game total nearing 50 points, we’ll see two teams face each other who are inside the top 10 in offensive tempo and there is quite a wide array of offensive weapons to choose from here. Assuming Sterling Shepard (concussion) plays, someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe this would be the first week where Daniel Jones will be starting with his full offensive arsenal at his disposal (Saquon, Shepard, Tate, and Engram). I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Giants put up a pretty good fight at home this week but it’s not always an easy task to slow down Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliot.

Players to Consider:

Michael Gallup

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Gallup lines up on the left perimeter on 52% of his routes. The Giants have given up the 5th most FPPG to that side of the field and 8th overall to all perimeter receivers. Gallup has disappointed in back-to-back games which were both pretty prime match-ups, so perhaps his ownership will come in lower than it should. Amari Cooper is obviously the safer bet to produce, but Gallup has shown a strong ceiling this year, which he could hit or break through on Monday night.

Golden Tate

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

It didn’t take long for Tate to start drawing plenty of looks from Daniel Jones. He has seen 30 targets over their last three games and has played on 98%, 99%, and 93% of snaps in each of those games respectively. The Cowboys have given up the 9th most FPPG to slot receivers over the last four weeks and if Tate is going to see around 10 targets per game, I love the potential here.

Darius Slayton

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

If Shepard does indeed play, that will take away from some of Slayton’s appeal but I’d still expect him to see 50+% of snaps as Cody Latimer and Bennie Fowler take the more significant hit in terms of reduced playing time. Slayton has earned a pretty significant role in this offense and has seen at least five targets in 4-of-6 games played this season. After a two touchdown day last week, I don’t believe we’re really chasing points here. It’s not a sure-fire bet that he’ll find fantasy success but he’ll come in on the lower end of the ownership spectrum (if Shepard suits up) and could pay off nicely if the Giants fall behind early.

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.

Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!