By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

Catch up on all other LineStar NFL content:

📰 Week 8 NFL Takeaways (Recapping last week's games & storylines)

🏈 2020 NFL Season Preview & Strategy Guide

🔊 PreSnap Podcast every Tuesday, Thursday & Friday!

👇 Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts! 👇

iTunes | Google Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher | YouTube

Week nine kicks off with some uncertainty surrounding the opening primetime game. Around noon ET today, the 49ers announced that one of their players (WR Kendrick Bourne) tested positive for COVID. All team facilities have been shut down pending further testing. So, the 49ers finally got some ‘positive’ health news… but not the kind they were looking for. Still, there may be a chance that more testing returns a false positive. Considering the 49ers and Packers are slated to play on Thursday night, let’s hope that is the case (or at least for no further positive tests). We’ll have to wait and see what happens over the next 24 hours, but that game carries an obvious risk of being rescheduled or postponed, especially considering the Packers are also dealing with some COVID-related issues of their own. Perhaps the NFL decides to set up another Monday doubleheader, but for now, I will proceed as if the game plays as scheduled on Thursday night

Beyond that TNF game, we’ll have a highly intriguing NFC South match-up between the Saints and Bucs on Sunday night, followed by an unexciting Monday night AFC East tilt between the Pats and Jets. Let’s dive into these games along with some off the radar players to consider in single-game showdown DFS contests!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this ***Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide*** for some important info and advice!

Thursday Night Football

Green Bay Packers (-6) @ San Francisco 49ers | 50 O/U

GB: 28.0 implied points | SF: 22.0 implied points

GB: 32nd in offensive tempo | SF: 29th in offensive tempo

Beyond the COVID-related impacts that each of these teams is dealing with, ‘normal’ injuries are running rampant -- primarily within the 49ers locker room. Ultimately, this game just profiles as a headache to predict and break down. Given the short week, coronavirus complications, and slow pace of play that each of these offenses plays at, I wouldn’t be surprised if this game plays kinda ugly in general. The current 50 point total is starting to seem a little too optimistic to me and, assuming this game plays as scheduled on Thursday night, I’d lean towards the under hitting in this game. Of course, the total could come down a couple of points by kickoff and I believe it will. The Packers are favored by a touchdown here, and many people think that spread should be higher. However, Green Bay possesses a defense that ranks as the 4th worst in terms of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) so the 49ers could realistically keep this game close and potentially pull off the upset with their ragtag group of starters. Not likely, but possible.

Notable Offensive Injuries: **deep breath** QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) - IR, RB Aaron Jones (calf) - Questionable (could be a true GTD), RB Jamaal Williams (C19) - Out, RB AJ Dillon (C19) - Out, RB Raheem Mostert (ankle) - IR, RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (ankle) - IR, RB Tevin Coleman (knee) - Out, WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring) - Out, WR Kendrick Bourne (C19) - Out, WR Allen Lazard (core) - IR, TE George Kittle (foot) - IR, TE Jordan Reed (knee) - IR, K Mason Crosby (calf/back) - Questionable

Lineup Construction: Going off of the spread, a 4-2 (GB-SF) build appears to be the safest approach. However, all of these injuries are making lower-priced players more viable, and considering Green Bay’s defensive struggles, an even 3-3 split makes sense as well. 

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain/FLEX Selections: QB Aaron Rodgers*, QB Nick Mullens, RB Aaron Jones (if cleared to play), WR Davante Adams*, TE Robert Tonyan

*Preferred captain plays

WR Trent Taylor | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

The 49ers are obviously hurting for viable receivers with Kittle going down last week, Deebo forced to miss another game, and now Kendrick Bourne testing positive for C19. That obviously leaves the impressive rookie, Brandon Aiyuk, as the top remaining target in this offense. The bad news for Aiyuk? He’ll now almost certainly see shadow coverage treatment from Jaire Alexander -- arguably the NFL’s top coverage corner on the season and easily a top-five player at his position. Alexander has held guys like Mike Evans (1-10-0), Calvin Ridley (0-0-0), and Will Fuller V (3-35-1) massively in check this season. So, needless to say, Aiyuk is in for a tough day at the office (though he’s still a viable guy to roster on a showdown slate). Trent Taylor will work primarily out of the slot and has played roughly 30% of snaps this season. In week eight, he played 50% of snaps which was 3rd among SF WRs behind Aiyuk (90%) and Bourne (86%). Taylor will now have a chance to play perhaps on upwards of 80% of snaps this week out of necessity. He should see a decent share of targets by default and will be useful as a value play due to DraftKings full PPR scoring format.

RB Jerrick McKinnon | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

San Francisco is banged up at RB about as badly as they are at WR/TE. Jerrick McKinnon and rookie JaMycal Hasty will be left to split work out of this backfield. Both guys found the endzone last week but, other than that, neither back really produced with much efficiency: McKinnon (3 att, -1 yd, 1 TD, 4 rec, 40 yds) on 50% of snaps, Hasty (12 att, 29 yds, 1 TD, 1 rec, 2 yds) on 41% of snaps. While it’s pretty much a guessing game, one of these guys should probably pay off dividends in this dream match-up. The Packers are giving up the most FPPG to RBs this season, and most of you probably saw what Dalvin Cook did to them last Sunday (226 total yards, 4 TDs). McKinnon has had strong games already this season while filling in for Mostert and Coleman, but perhaps due to recent injury-plagued seasons where he rarely saw the field, it seems some amount of mid-season fatigue is setting in for him. I would recommend gaining exposure to both guys (in separate lineups) though if I were forced to pick one guy I am leaning towards McKinnon due to his proven involvement in the passing game.

RB Tyler Ervin | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Ervin will be yet another player highlighted out of pure injury-related speculation. Of course, his viability hinges on the availability of Aaron Jones but if Jones is ruled out, the thinking is that Ervin will get the first crack at the featured role out of the Green Bay backfield. In Jones’ absence this past Sunday, Jamaal Williams (out this week along with RB AJ Dillon, C19 related) played 85% of snaps and came away with another solid performance for the second consecutive week. Ervin didn’t pop up very much in the box score (no carries, 3 tgt, 1 rec, 7 yds) but he played on 27% of snaps (2nd among RBs) and would probably be looking at an 80+% snap share this week with Jones, Williams, and Dillon all unavailable to play. Ervin has been a kick/punt returner for the vast majority of his five year career but he’s a decent enough runner and has had some impressive returns over the years. He would be useful in DFS this week based on volume alone.

Sunday Night Football

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) | 51.5 O/U

NO: 23.3 implied points | TB: 28.3 implied points

NO: 22nd in offensive tempo | TB: 12th in offensive tempo

Ahh, after writing about that 49ers/Packers game, this Sunday night match-up feels like a breath of fresh air. Things should be much more straightforward in this pivotal NFC South clash which features a pair of future Hall of Fame QBs. Drew Brees got the best of Tom Brady and the Bucs all the way back in week one when the Saints came away victorious by a score of 34-23. Quite a bit has changed since then but we should expect another tightly contested game. Both teams rank inside the top 10 in both offensive efficiency (TB 6th, NO 7th) and defensive efficiency (TB 1st, NO 8th). However, despite ranking out well in efficiency on defense, the Saints have given up a lofty 28.1 PPG (10th most) and seem to compete in closely contested games nearly every week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay enters coming off of quite the scare against the Giants on Monday night where they needed a late two-point conversion stop to avoid likely overtime, and potentially a loss. The big headlines for this game are going to surround players at the wide receiver position. Antonio Brown will be eligible to make his Bucs debut, though it is uncertain just how many snaps he will get to start with. Much of his involvement could depend on the availability of Chris Godwin, who is coming off of finger surgery but could potentially suit up on Sunday. We are also waiting to see whether or not Michael Thomas (ankle/hamstring) will make his return to the Saints lineup. Thomas has been practicing on a limited basis for the last couple of weeks, so it is a possibility.

Side note: we are several days away from this game at the time of this writing on Wednesday, so things could change, but be on the lookout for some 20 mph winds here which could have a bit of an impact (as we saw in several games in week eight).

Notable Offensive Injuries: QB Drew Brees (shoulder) - Questionable (should be fine to play), WR Michael Thomas (ankle/hamstring) - Questionable, WR Chris Godwin (finger) - Questionable, WR Marquez Callaway (ankle) - Questionable, RB Alvin Kamara (bone bruise) - Questionable (also should be fine to play),

Lineup Construction: Even 3-3 builds are fairly likely to be the most common/safest approach but 4-2 builds (favoring either team) will be highly viable as well. I doubt either team runs away on the scoreboard so I’ll have zero 5-1 ‘smash’ builds, personally.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain/FLEX Selections: QB Tom Brady*, QB Drew Brees, RB Alvin Kamara*, RB Leonard Fournette, WR Michael Thomas (if active), WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin* (if active), TE Rob Gronkowski

*Preferred captain selections

WR Antonio Brown | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Despite the unknown nature of Brown’s snap count in his first taste of NFL action in over a year, I’m compelled to grab some sort of exposure to him in this game. Reportedly, Brown showed up to Tampa Bay in great shape and has even been staying at Tom Brady’s house as he gets acclimated to his new team. It’s also very likely that Saints top corner, Marshon Lattimore, shadows Mike Evans, which could boost Brown’s potential. Per ESPN’s Mike Clay, on 152 routes across six games in Lattimore’s coverage, Evans has just ten catches for 210 yards and a TD. With Evans, Godwin, Gronk, and now Brown all at his disposal, Tom Brady has no shortage of elite targets to throw to. But with Godwin perhaps not at 100% (and possibly not even playing), I wouldn’t be shocked to see AB get forced maybe 6-8 targets even if it’s just so the Bucs can see what Brown can do these days. Really, this is more of a gut play than an analytical one, but I’ll take a shot on Brown in some lineups this week, potentially as a captain selection.

WR Emmanuel Sanders | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Sanders is set to return from the COVID-19 list and we’ll see if he can pick up where he left off back in week five when he caught 12-of-14 targets for 122 yards. Drew Brees and Sanders clearly had been gaining quite a rapport with each other before Sanders was forced to miss the Saints two games following that week five performance. Even if Michael Thomas returns, Sanders should be a viable showdown target. Thomas will probably see shadow coverage from Carlton Davis who was able to shut him down back in week one (3 catches, 17 yards) before sustaining that ankle injury. Tampa Bay allows the 10th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this isn’t a great match-up to draw for either guy after being sidelined for an extended period of time. But this game could turn into a back-and-forth battle with plenty of points scored, so I believe you have to keep someone like Sanders within consideration.

WR Jaydon Mickens | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

Mickens will be a pure contrarian punt play considering all of the high profile receivers ahead of him on the depth chart now. Mickens was somewhat inexplicably targeted eight times on Monday night and caught five passes for 36 yards while playing on 63% of snaps. Needless to say, it’s unlikely that he sees anywhere close to the same amount of snaps and targets this week. But once showdown pricing is released for this game, he could be one of those cheap <$2,000 fliers to gamble on in hopes that they put up one or two big plays or a TD on the board. Mickens also operates as the primary kick and punt returner for the Bucs, so there’s always a slim chance he finds the endzone that way.

Monday Night Football

New England Patriots (-7) @ New York Jets | 42 O/U

NE: 24.5 implied points | NYJ: 17.5 implied points

NE: 19th in offensive tempo | NYJ: 7th in offensive tempo

No one is really going to get hyped for this game but, hey, playing some showdown DFS certainly helps stomach three hours of an ugly match-up like the one we have here on Monday night. The Jets are candidates to go 0-16 this season and win the Trevor Lawrence (or Justin Fields?) lottery, but now after a 2-5 start, you have to wonder just how much the Pats are invested into this season as well. Many people thought they would be making some moves ahead of yesterday’s trade deadline, like dealing away top CB Stephon Gilmore, but nothing really developed. The NFL trade deadline often ends up unexciting and disappointing anyway, so I suppose it shouldn’t be a real surprise. Both teams have shown poor defensive play this season and rank inside the bottom ten in DVOA (NYJ 26th, NE 27th). However, as you can tell by that 42 point over/under, this isn’t shaping up to be some kind of shootout considering the Jets are dead last in offensive efficiency, while the Pats rank 24th. If there is any storyline that is remotely intriguing in this game, it’s going to involve Cam Newton, whose days as the stater in New England may be numbered. We’ll see if these teams can provide us with a surprisingly entertaining game to wrap up week nine, but I’m not getting my hopes up.

Notable Offensive Injuries: QB Sam Darnold (shoulder) - Questionable (should play), WR Jamison Crowder (groin) - Questionable, WR Julian Edelman (knee) - IR, WR Breshad Perriman (concussion) - Questionable, WR N’Keal Harry (concussion), Questionable

Lineup Construction: Well… if we’re going off the spread then 4-2 (NE-NYJ) makes the most sense but I’d also play around with even 3-3 builds. In case of an unlikely, but possible, massive 20+ point blowout, I wouldn’t be opposed to throwing out a 5-1 (NE-NYJ) ‘smash’ build here and there.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain Selections: QB Cam Newton*, QB Sam Darnold, RB Damien Harris*, WR Jamison Crowder* (if active)

*Preferred captain selections

WR Damiere Byrd | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

When it comes to predicting which one of these Patriots WRs in this makeshift receiving corps will have a solid game this week, your guess is as good as mine. Right now, Jakobi Meyers maybe separating himself as the go-to receiver for Cam Newton and is probably the safer play here. But I’m also intrigued by Byrd, considering he’s hardly ever going to come off of the field. Byrd’s 93.6% snap rate is second in the NFL among qualified wide receivers, trailing only DK Metcalf (95.7%). Byrd was on the field for 100% of snaps last week, and even though it didn’t amount to much (4 tgt, 3 rec, 39 yards), he is at least going to have plenty of potential opportunity. The Jets also allow the 5th most FPPG to WRs on the left perimeter, which is where Byrd runs 64% of his routes.

WR Braxton Berrios | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

You’re taking a shot in the dark with any Jets pass catcher not named Jamison Crowder, and if Breshad Perriman returns then Berrios may rarely even see the field. But Berrios does have 18 targets in the last two weeks, including 11 last week. Sure, he only turned those 11 targets into eight catches for 34 yards… but that’s PPR good-ness, baby! Okay, I won’t pretend to be excited about any player linked to this offense but, thanks to injuries, Berrios has played on 84% of snaps the last two weeks and has garnered his fair share of targets. Sam Darnold and the Jets will likely have to pass the ball quite a bit as they could be playing from behind once again.

New England DST | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Honestly, I probably could have listed the New England DST in the “obvious” list, and they could even be viable as a captain play. Yes, they’ve been pretty bad this season but they could be getting Stephon Gilmore (the reigning DPOY) back this week which would be a nice boost. It’s also the Jets, so that is reason enough to play the Pats defense. The Jets are allowing 11.3 FPPG to opposing defenses this year while scoring just 11.8 actual PPG through eight games.

That will wrap us up for the Week 9 Primetime Preview! Be on the lookout for the main slate breakdown tomorrow! Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.